793.94/8272
The Chargé in Japan (Dickover) to the Secretary of State
[Received October 19.]
Sir: I have the honor to submit the following report upon Sino-Japanese relations, supplementing that contained in Embassy’s despatch No. 2041 of September 17, 1936.27
The apprehensions which had prevailed in Japan that the anniversary of the September 18 incident in Mukden might be made the occasion for further attacks upon Japanese in China were realized when there occurred in close succession the Swatow, Fengtai, Hankow and Shanghai affairs.
[Here follows résumé of recent incidents and Japanese public reaction thereto.]
Summary.
The developments in Sino-Japanese relations during the past two weeks have served to gain support in Japanese political circles for the advocate of a strong China policy and to strengthen the force of public opinion behind them. Japan’s objectives in addition to the immediate settlement of the incidents appear to be (1) the eradication by China of anti-Japanese activities which would incidentally have the effect of embarrassing Chiang Kai-shek with the Kuomintang and weaken his position; and (2) the creation of an autonomous regime under Japanese influence in North China. There would appear to be also other minor objectives, such as the reduction of China’s customs duties and the appointment of Japanese advisers to the National Government. In this connection, it is well to bear in mind Hirota’s three points which underlie Japan’s objectives in China.
There are evidences that it is Japan’s policy to press China to give in to the Japanese demands, as far as can be done short of resort to outright military coercion, using to the best advantage the leverage afforded by the series of incidents that have occurred. Should China [Page 328] refuse to accede to the demands relating to the suppression of anti-Japanese activities, there will probably be an increase in the naval protection for Japanese residents in port cities. If Nanking refuses to give way to the demands relating to North China, the Japanese army will probably pursue a policy of slow and steady penetration advancing towards the goal as opportunities present themselves.
Respectfully yours,
- Not printed.↩