893.52 Manchuria/20
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 8.]
Sir: I have the honor to enclose a translation of a leading article which appeared in the Jiji Shinpo of today87 indicating that the [Page 271] Army’s plan for settling 5,000,000 Japanese emigrants in Manchuria is assuming a more concrete shape.
It is clear from the article that while the project is expected to alleviate agrarian over-population at home its primary purpose is to make secure Japan’s military occupation of Manchuria. It is noted that the Army considers a Japanese population of at least ten per cent of the total essential for security. This is an admission that the loyalty of the native Chinese population to “Manchukuo” cannot be relied upon. Also worthy of note is the strategic territorial distribution that is to be made of the Japanese emigrants: they are to be concentrated along the Soviet and Mongolian frontiers and also in areas in the vicinity of the principal industrial centers.
Grandiose as the project sounds, it cannot be doubted that the Japanese Army is in earnest about it. Much more doubtful are the prospects of success, notwithstanding the pronouncement that the period of experimental emigration has passed and that the time for large scale emigration has come. According to reliable information, the 500 Japanese agricultural families despatched to Chiamussu in 1932, the 500 families despatched to Hunanling in 1933, and the 500 families sent to Suiliang near Harbin in 1934 have dwindled respectively to 350, 300 and 300. The rigorous climate of North Manchuria, the difficulties of adjustment to so radical a change in environment, the constant menace of bandits, and above all the necessity of competing against the Chinese with their superior hardihood and lower standard of living, all combine to render the country unattractive to Japanese. Granted even that it is possible to subsidize emigration to an extent necessary to induce Japanese initially to take up life in Manchuria, it is difficult to see how they are to be kept contented there unless they continue to obtain subsidies. While much has been heard of the suggestion that the Japanese would be able to maintain a superior standard of living by the adoption of mechanized agriculture, it should be borne in mind, in view of the fact that farming in Japan is pursued by essentially the same intensive hand methods as in China, that there is no assurance that Japanese farmers in Manchuria would be able to adopt mechanized methods any more readily than would Chinese.
Respectfully yours,
- Not printed.↩