793.94/7422: Telegram
The Chargé in Japan (Neville) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 23—6:45 a.m.]
214. Department’s 179, November 22, 5 p.m. During the past few weeks it has been extremely difficult to obtain information from the Japanese authorities. Persons in responsible positions have been either [Page 437] uncommunicative or difficult of access. Foreign Office officials have consistently stated that there has been no new policy in China or have turned aside inquiries in regard to the situation in North China by the bland remark that the movements there represented the will of the people which the Japanese should respect. There has been much discussion of giving “aid to the struggling masses of North China” but little or no information as to the concrete steps to be taken. The Embassy has also tried to obtain information through the Japanese Army and Navy who have proved rather reticent.
Certain factors seem clear but they are largely inference and judgment. As the Department is aware the Kwantung Army has been forbidden to go south of the Wall without express imperial order and the Japanese garrison in the Tientsin-Peiping region is not large enough to make a military movement. In the absence of military activity by the Nanking forces towards the North there is no reason to believe that the Japanese will initiate military action. The reason for this appears to be largely financial. The Finance Minister and the business community do not want to spend any more money in China just now. This feeling is shared to some extent by the army authorities here in Japan whose interest in China is conditioned somewhat by their fears of Russian activity.
Still despite the fact that an autonomous government in North China has not yet been organized it seems premature to assume that the Japanese are reconciled to the continued authority of Nanking in North China. They probably wish for some regime with which they can treat without continual reference to Chiang. It is difficult to estimate here just what they will do to bring this about but in the absence of some incident it seems unlikely that they will take military action at this juncture. In any event, there is no prospect of the Japanese getting out of North China and we must expect a series of incidents there and elsewhere on the mainland until they meet some force that will stop them. The Government here seems helpless at times in the face of situations that arise or are created by Japanese military, economic or political interests in China.
I shall endeavor to obtain more information and to report more fully later.
Repeated to Peiping.