893.00/10409
The Consul at Nanking (Price) to the Minister in China (MacMurray)34
Sir: I have the honor to submit an interim report on the political situation in this area at the time of the opening of the Third National Congress in Nanking. …
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No compromise having been effected, and the Government having so arranged that no Opposition delegates might attend the Congress, we have now to consider what action the Opposition took or is taking to meet the situation. All that is known is that Yü Yu-jen, previously mentioned, refused to attend the inaugural meeting of the Congress and left Nanking for, it is said, Canton, where it is rumored he will attempt to convene a rival Congress; that a fiery Manifesto, bearing the names of Wang Ching-wei, Yü Yu-jen and other Left Wing leaders, appeared in the press (North China Daily News, March 14, 1929), denouncing the Government and the Congress; and that the police of Nanking arrested some thirty-five persons, seized several thousand pamphlets,—which, it is said, were intended for use in a large anti-Government demonstration,—and are reported to have [Page 145] unearthed a plot against the lives of leading Government officials. It is also a fact that runs on branches at Shanghai and Canton of the Central Bank of China occurred, bearing out the theory of radical instigation to discredit the Government.
On the whole, however, the Opposition has shown itself surprisingly meek in the face of the strong attitude of the Government. Whatever else this may or may not mean, it seems reasonable to take the fact that there has been no disorder as an indication of the strength of the Government.
What the Opposition elements will now attempt to do is difficult to say. It cannot safely be assumed that they are completely cowed, and are yielding to the apparently inevitable. About all that can be said is that indications are that whatever action they take must be instituted outside the nation’s capital.
The “strong arm” policy of the Government, which has led to the present situation, has not been without its unfortunate results. It is significant that, except for General Li Chi-sen at Canton, not one of the important military leaders outside the Chiang Kai-shek clique has attended the conference. In the case of Feng Yu-hsiang, he has not only absented himself, but has significantly resigned his post as Minister of Military Affairs.
On the face of things, much that was accomplished by the Disbandment Conference of January of this year has been undone. The split between the Government and all other factions seems wider than ever. The Government has apparently resorted to a show of force, vis-a-vis any and all opposition; has called a Congress virtually of its own choosing, thereby largely scrapping the constitution of the Kuomintang Party; and seems in a fair way to perpetuate itself at and through such Congress. There can be no denying that there has thus been created a new entity, which may be called “the. Government”, divorced in fact from the Party, though still using the Party name for its authority; and claiming the right of separate existence and of continuity.
This is a most significant development and requires most careful examination, if the present state of China is to be given its correct values. The fundamental question is: Has a new oligarchy been created, built up around the person of Chiang Kai-shek, which will continue to assert its authority, so far as it now has it and so far as it may be made to spread, over surrounding territory; or is the present phenomenon but an expression of the “will to endure” of those who see no other way for China to carry on as a sovereign state under present conditions? No attempt will be made to answer this question dogmatically, but observations will be offered which may throw some light on it.
[Page 146]In the first place, even though every legal and constitutional point was strained, to effect the assembling of a group of delegates to the Congress who could be counted upon to support the existing Government, nothing has yet been changed in that complicated mechanism of Government created by the Kuomintang Party to protect the group from the individual. The present legal machinery cannot easily be used by a single man to set himself up in absolute power. Where such legal machinery for safeguarding the rights of the group exists, danger of individual autocracy is lessened. Hence, even if, for the moment, an oligarchy has been created, it is an oligarchy composed of a very considerable number of individuals, each of whom has rather definite rights and powers.
In the second place, the Congress now in session has openly declared itself in favor of a vigorous carrying out of a nation-wide system of education of the people in the science of government. The slogan of the Congress may well be described as—“Prepare for the Period of Constitutionalism”. The principles of popular government have been given an apparent set-back, but there can be no question that the idea of it vigorously persists.
In the third place, if, as seems reasonable, one may judge from the statements of responsible officials, there is genuine regret that the present Congress left no room for an Opposition. The problem of providing for some sort of system, something more than is now provided, which will permit of the organization and effective functioning of an Opposition, is being honestly faced by many able and powerful persons in the present Government.
Finally, there should not be overlooked the circumstance that the present Government cries out for more time, for continuity of effort and aim sufficient to bring programs now launched nearer to effective realization. The claim is made that to have permitted the Opposition—admittedly radical—to have entered the Congress in any numbers would simply have resulted in chaos, and the undoing of much already accomplished.
No matter what may be the explanation, however, the fact remains that the present Government has determined to perpetuate itself, and has taken on the garb of virtual autocracy to do so. Whether the germ of popular government will endure [through] this period, and whether the means employed will have raised up forces which will render impossible the attainment of the end, history alone can say.
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In conclusion, the observation is offered that the real test of the Chinese Nationalist Revolution, and of the Government which evolved therefrom, is now at hand. Forces for peace and for war [Page 147] are both strong. But even should war-fare again break out, it is by no means a foregone conclusion that the Government must fail. It is strong, confident; has access to greater financial resources than any single opponent; and has the inestimable advantage of being “the Government”.
I have [etc.]
- Copy transmitted to the Department without covering letter; received April 29, 1929.↩