Henry L. Stimson Private Papers
Memorandum by the Assistant Secretary of State (Johnson)
Mr. Vitetti of the Italian Embassy called and referred to the conversation between the Italian Ambassador and the Secretary yesterday and stated that they wondered what my opinion was with regard to China and whether China intended to make war against Russia.
I told Mr. Vitetti that my own opinion, for what worth it might be, was that China would not precipitate a war, but I thought that China would carry the matter to the point where she would be in a good position for negotiation and then negotiate; that I had no feeling that China would go beyond that.
Mr. Vitetti stated that reports which they had received from their Ambassador at Moscow up to this point did not cover the present incident. He was persuaded that Russia was in no condition to carry on any war either from the point of view of organization or the materials used in war. He stated that while it was true that there was a wheat reserve in Siberia at the present time, their reports indicated that this reserve was not sufficient to take care of the shortage of food generally in Russia. He felt certain in these circumstances the Russians could not mobilize and supply sufficient forces to go very far beyond perhaps some border raids. He stated that he felt all of factors in the situation were against war.
[Page 219]Mr. Vitetti asked whether it was our intention to mediate in the matter. I told him that mediation could only be possible in case both sides to the quarrel were to ask for mediation; that in any case there was the Kellogg Pact against war to which both China and Russia had adhered, thereby placing upon both parties to this discussion a heavy obligation to consider their steps very carefully before precipitating war over a matter that, after all, was arbitrable.