Paris Peace Conf. 184.01102/22½
Professor A. C. Coolidge to the Commission to Negotiate Peace
[Received January 28.]
Sirs: I have the honor to report that in the various conversations I have held in the last few days I have been able to gather certain impressions as to the general situation here, the position of the government and the strength of the various parties. I give these impressions, such as they are, leaving it to Mr. Storey to confirm or correct them when he has been there longer and has had time to study these matters more thoroughly.
The government of Count Karolyi is weak, its greatest asset being his own popularity and the difficulty of finding anyone to replace him. The aristocracy is bitterly critical of Count Karolyi. It accuses him of culpable weakness and declares he is leading the country to ruin and Bolshevism. They point out the small number of official adherents to the Socialist Party and say that Budapest is not Hungary or even a fair representative of it, that the present government is dominated by fear of the city mob and is steadily moving further and further toward the left. The military weakness of the government, as of the state, is only too evident. The troops returning in confusion from Italy and Serbia were sent to their homes by the War Minister without having to surrender their rifles and ammunition. This has had a demoralizing effect throughout the country. Later it was found necessary to have an army and after some hesitation five classes were called back to the colors. This produced dissatisfaction and the soldiers thus called proved unruly. Two classes were sent back, the other three having no wish to be as they were receiving good pay, had little to do and were under weak discipline. The councils of the soldiers (in which the officers take part) are already a power. Many people will tell one that against any revolutionary attack there is practically no military force whatsoever. What the conservatives ask for, as is usual in such cases, is firmness, and they believe that they can rely on the support of the peasants. Many of the conservatives seem to [be?] reactionaries and would like to see the monarchy, though hardly the recent emperor, restored. In general they appear to me not to realize how profoundly the situation has changed in the last three months and to lack constructive ideas.
[Page 381]The Social Democrats, among whom the Jewish element is strong, are well organized, in fact they have practically the only good organization that now exists in this country. Their leaders appear to be men of ability. They are planning all kinds of reforms in taxes, distribution of property and many other matters. There may be truth in the charge brought against them that they live in the domain of theory and not of fact. They are patriotic enough and dread the partition of their country as much as do the conservatives, though they admit errors in the past and appeal to the doctrine of self-determination rather than to history. They are suspicious and inclined to look on all conservatives as reactionaries plotting to restore the monarchy.
It is to be noted that one of the great weaknesses of Hungary is the absence of a strong middle class which might hold the balance between the main parties. Finance and industry are largely in the hands of the Jews and at present there is a strong Semitic feeling among the conservatives.
The government is conscious of its weakness and is trying to steer a middle course. It is based on a coalition and its members do not appear to get on harmoniously together. After a crisis which has lasted about ten days a new cabinet was announced this morning. Some members of the last one were retained, others left. I asked Count Karolyi if his new cabinet meant a step further to the left, he answered “a little, not much”. There are now three socialists in it instead of two as before, but he pointed out that he had put in as a member a genuine peasant (whom I have met) to help counter-balance the power of the city democracy. Count Karolyi came in as the man who had opposed the war and who it was hoped might get better terms from the Entente. Since he has been in office he has not been able to get into communication with the Allies at all and he has seen a great part of his country overrun in a way not at all indicated by the armistice. The fact that this has happened and that the Magyars have attempted no resistance has tended to discredit and weaken the government and strengthen the power of its critics. Count Karolyi has an attractive personality, well educated, experienced, broad-minded. He realizes the difficulties of the situation and the futility of many of the plans proposed. He is doing his utmost under trying circumstances with no too great a confidence in the future. One feels attracted to him and sorry for him. He seems a very good fellow but nervous and permanently worried, which is perhaps not surprising.
The financial situation by all accounts is very bad. The expenses are enormous, a great number of pensioners and idle people are receiving what looks like high pay though it is not enough to keep them comfortably. Taxes do not come in. The economic life of the country has been disrupted by the occupation of the industrial portions by invading armies and I suspect that government finance is kept going [Page 382] chiefly with the aid of the printing press. The present reduced Hungary is being held responsible for the obligations imposed on the old larger one. Everybody says that any attempt to put on her an unfair share in the burden of the debt or an indemnity will result in prompt and complete bankruptcy. Many people think this will come anyway.
As throwing light on the situation I shall mention an incident which I witnessed yesterday. A band of students and others from the so called Szeckler portion of Transylvania who had gathered to protest against the incorporation of their country by the Roumanians, after proceeding to the hotel where I lived and cheering and singing the national hymn until I had to appear on the balcony, went on to the residence of the President where one of them made a speech and where I happened to be making my farewell call. The meeting, however, assumed an anti-socialist character and it was rumored that a demonstration would be made against the new Socialist Minister of War. When I left the palace and crossed the open place a Socialist guard (though I think that they were regular troops) was drawn in front of the residence with machine guns and others were coming to support them. I have been told that bloodshed was narrowly averted. In the evening there had been firing (without casualties) in one of the main streets through which I passed on my way to the station.
Still on the whole public order has so far been preserved and the Socialist leaders expressed themselves as being able to maintain it as long as the people have enough to eat and keep decently warm. The food question is not as bad here as it is in Austria, but the scarcity of coal is equally great and there is greater lack of material for clothes. If the absolute necessities of life give out no one can answer for anything. Mr. Boehm, the newly appointed Socialist Minister of War said to me “what we fear is not Bolshevism but anarchy.[”]
I have [etc.]