File No. 812.00/2889.
The American Ambassador to the Secretary of State.
Mexico, February 20, 1912.
My Dear Mr. Knox: Since my January 23, 1912, events in Mexico have moved with startling rapidity over a wide extent of territory, indicating in the most forceful way the great measure of discontent, the general unrest, and the fulfillment in no inconsiderable degree of the predictions which I have made in former despatches relative to the inability of the present administration to carry out the political program under which it assumed the Government. * * *
At the beginning of the Madero administration the supporters of General Diaz, the leading members of the Catholic Party, the representatives of old families, and the commercial, financial, and foreign interests, realizing that Madero had been honestly elected to the presidency and eagerly desirous of the maintenance of peaceful and orderly conditions, were inclined to give him a formal though reluctant support, but his weak and vacillating policy in the suppression of lawlessness and his disposition to compromise with crime and disorder rather than to punish them have caused the profoundest feeling [Page 723] of disgust and distrust among these elements, and from what I am able to ascertain they would gladly assist in his downfall but for the fear of the anarchy which would most likely ensue and the possible intervention of the Government of the United States, to which most, but not all, of them are opposed. * * *
In the midst of all these difficulties the economic situation grows steadily worse. Haciendas are suffering for want of laborers to till the soil and tend the flocks. Factories are closing on account of strikes or the interruption of railway traffic. Mines are closing down on account of marauding bandits, and merchants are carrying stocks for which there are no buyers. * * * Another impending difficulty in the economic situation is the threatened strike of the 1,200 American employees on the Mexican National Railways. This strike is being considered and may be precipitated at any moment unless the Mexican Government positively recedes from the position it recently assumed requiring all railway employees to pass an examination in the Spanish language. As not 5 per cent of these American employees can speak sufficiently well to pass an examination in the Spanish language, they correctly interpreted the announcement of this requirement as the signal of the Government’s determination to gradually eliminate them from the service. A strike at this moment would be appalling in its consequences, as it would close factories, interrupt all traffic with the United States, raise the price of foodstuffs, and prevent the transportation of troops. Realizing this, I went to the President with Mr. Calero and persuaded him to take my view of the situation, and he finally promised that he would recall the obnoxious order. This, however, has not yet been done, and the railway men are becoming increasingly impatient and will soon pass beyond the influence which I have been able to exert over them.
I have recently been so deeply impressed with the danger of the situation and so profoundly apprehensive of the responsibilities which the downfall of the Madero Government would place upon our Government that in addition to affording this Government every particle of information and advice which I thought of use or benefit, I have most discreetly and carefully, through reliable persons generally, but directly in two instances, endeavored to induce leading members of the Catholic Party, of the old regime, and of the commercial elements of the city to make some demonstration of a public character, coupled with a tender of service and support as might have a moral effect on the country at large. I believe such a movement is now under contemplation.
Most of the people in the south are Zapatistas, though I understand there are followers of Vásquez Gómez. In the States of Chihuahua, Durango, and a part of Coahuila, in the north, there is active rebellion, and in the States of Sonora, Zacatecas, Jalisco, and Guanajuato there is unrest and widespread lawlessness. These people call themselves adherents of Vásquez Gómez.
In the meantime the President remains serene and optimistic—an honest man, a man of high ideals and patriotic purposes, dealing with a situation which he comprehends very slightly.
I am [etc.]