The most important question is naturally the evacuation by the foreign troops
of Peking and other sections of this province and the reestablishment of the
regular Chinese authority. It has, however, been agreed to by all the powers
that the evacuation can not be commenced or any alterations made in the
present mode of governing this province until, not only the total amount of
the indemnity to be asked of China has been ascertained, but the securities
for the payment of the same have been given and accepted by the powers. As
on the other side it was agreed to extend the time for the presentation of
private claims to the diplomatic corps here to the 14th of May, it seems
hardly probable that the total amount of the indemnity to be asked of China
can be ascertained even before the 1st of June. In the meanwhile the
occupation is costing China enormous sums of money. The estimated war
expenditure of the various powers which are known up to the present date are
calculated up to the 1st of May. After this date it is probable that unless
a considerable reduction in the forces is made that the foreign military
occupation will cost China at least $8,000,000 a month. The Chinese, on the
other hand, estimate that, together with the loss of revenues, the foreign
occupation will cost them close on to $30,000,000 a month, and I am inclined
to believe they are not far from the truth.
[Inclosure with dispatch No.
57.—Translation.]
Memorandum.
The joint note demanding the punishment of provincial officials
implicated in the murder of foreigners in the interior has now been
delivered, also a note indicating the towns where all the official
examinations have to be suspended for a period of five years.
[Page 126]
With the acceptance of the conditions prescribed in these two notes, the
execution of Article II of the joint note of December 22 will be on the
point of being accomplished.
Of the edicts required by Article X, the first and the fourth have
already been agreed to, and a commencement of placarding has been made.
It remains to placard decrees enumerating the punishment inflicted and
the names of the towns where examinations are to be suspended on account
of the massacres or cruel treatment of foreigners.
With the publication and placarding of the two remaining edicts in terms
satisfactory to the representatives of the powers, the execution of
Article X will be completed.
In a note of the doyen of 26th January, and again in one of 6th of
February (see extracts at end), the foreign representatives gave the
Chinese plenipotentiaries to understand that on these two articles being
carried out they would be ready to discuss the military questions
touched on in the Chinese memorandum of January 16, namely, Articles
VIII and IX of the joint note, relative to the demolition of the forts
at Taku and elsewhere, and the maintenance of the free communication
between the sea and the capital, and also the question of the evacuation
of the capital and of the province of Chihli.
The complete evacuation of the province of Chihli is, of course, not
meant, for Article IX of the joint note implies the continued occupation
for a time of several points on the line of communication, amongst which
Tientsin, Shanhaikwan, Tongku, and probably several others must be
included.
It seems desirable that the local judicial, civil, and police
administration at these points as well as elsewhere should be handed
back to the Chinese authorities, notwithstanding the continuance of
military occupation, which should be limited to the performance of
garrison duties.
It may be hoped that before long some plan for carrying out Articles VIII
and IX of the joint note may be framed by the military authorities and
receive the approval of the powers which have troops in north China.
The diplomatic body has appointed a committee to consider and report on
the resources which China has at her disposal for meeting the
indemnities which she will have to pay in consequence of the troubles of
last summer and of the dispatch of military expeditions. This committee
has already held several meetings, and will shortly be in a position to
present a report containing its recommendations on this head.
Consequently the foreign representatives may reasonably expect to be
ready to enter upon the discussion of the foregoing subject with the
Chinese plenipotentiaries as soon as, if not sooner than, the latter are
able to announce that Articles II and X have received complete
execution.
In approaching the question of indemnities with them, after satisfaction
has been obtained on the points dealt with by those two articles, there
might perhaps be advantage in intimating to them that if the attitude of
China is satisfactory in regard to the initiation of the necessary
arrangements, the allied powers will be ready to diminish the numbers of
their troops.
The first concession which the Chinese Government will be desirous of
obtaining is the evacuation of the capital. With regard to Peking, it is
to be observed that at present it is divided between the American,
British, French, German, Italian, and Japanese forces, and that in each
quarter there is a police commissioner invested with extensive powers.
Over all there seems to be a general council composed of military
officers, but no official information has been received regarding its
constitution and functions. Before the city can be handed over to the
Chinese authorities it will be necessary to assure ourselves that they
are prepared to preserve order and undertake the administration of
justice and police. The same remark applies to Paotingfu, Tungchow, and
such rural portions of the provinces as are evacuated by the allied
troops. It is desirable that the Chinese civil administration at Peking
and elsewhere should be restored before the evacuation takes place, so
that no opportunity may be afforded for the Chinese authorities to give
full proof of their capability to carry on the local governments,
failing which the withdrawal of the allied forces would have to be
postponed.
But previous to answering on this last question it will be necessary to
proceed in the following order:
- Firstly. The representatives of the powers having
expeditionary forces in north China must be agreed among
themselves that the Chinese Government, having executed Articles
II and X of the joint note, and given such other proof of their
intention to perform its remaining stipulations as may be judged
necessary, have thereby become entitled to have the question of
evacuation taken into consideration.
- Secondly. The assent of the powers concerned must be obtained
to the view arrived at by their representatives.
- Thirdly. The powers concerned must give instructions to mand
to concert the necessary measures for carrying out the
evacuation of the cities and districts mentioned.
- Fourthly. The generals concerned must acquaint the
representatives of their respective Governments with the
conclusions at which they have arrived, including the dates at
which the evacuation will commence and be terminated, and all
other details which it may be necessary to communicate to the
Chinese plenipotentiaries in order to enable them to take over
military charge of the cities and districts as each is
evacuated.
- Fifthly. This information must be transmitted to the Chinese
authorities, in order that they may be prepared to act on
it.
Each of these successive steps may require from two to three weeks for
its completion, owing to the necessity of so many diverse authorities
being consulted, both on the spot and abroad.
It is obvious that, as the period which must elapse from the commencement
of the negotiation in question to the date fixed for the completion of
the evacuation can not be estimated at less than three or four months,
and may possibly extend to more, a sufficient interval will be left to
judge of the degree of good faith with which the Chinese authorities are
acting, and to afford an opportunity of putting pressure upon them, if
necessary, by temporarily suspending the movements of the troops toward
the coast.
