Mr. Seward to Mr. Pike.
Sir: Your despatch of October 15 (No. 63) has been received. I know not how profitable it might be for me to examine the very sagacious and patriotic views you have presented on the subject of the war, and the policy with which it is carried on by the government. It is to be remembered that the country, so far from remaining in a normal state, is undergoing all the agitation of an attempted revolution. Measures and men, even at home, are harshly judged under the influence of the hopes and apprehensions of the hour: and these are exaggerated by interests, ambitions, and passions which varying occasions stimulate. The like haste of judgment upon the same questions necessarily reveals itself in Europe, for the relations of nations are too intimate to allow a disturbance in any one state to be confined within its own limits. Perhaps it is not unwise to believe that the agitation here, which has been going on for thirty years, and which broke out into open rebellion eighteen months ago, has at last reached its crisis. The exigencies have been met, and a rapid process of exhaustion of the material as well as the moral elements of the war has been going on, and the time cannot be distant when the nation will, from necessity, seek repose. Nothing can be more difficult than it is to mark the time when this condition begins to discover itself in any conflict. But if I am correct in supposing it has been reached in the present case, then I think we have occasion to congratulate ourselves upon the good position in which the [Page 624] cause of the Union stands. The strength of the government was never greater, its means never more completely at command, its present vigor in applying them has at no time been surpassed. Our military and naval expeditions are now on the eve of their departure, and we look for success equal to that which attended the campaign of the last spring. On the other hand, we see that the material strength of the insurgents has been much reduced, while they have not yet gained any permanent advantage anywhere. It can hardly be presumed that the European states will interfere to complicate the strife under these circumstances. Such apprehensions are the more unreasonable when we consider how difficult these states would find it to adjust new and beneficial relations with this country if divided into intensely antagonistical republics, to say nothing of such states reversing their previous policies in regard to the termination of slavery in their colonies. Who can tell what would be the questions which would arise in the British colonies lying northward of us if this Union of ours is divided 1 What shall come up in place of our existing relations of amity and commercial reciprocity? What shall become of the policy of extinguishing slavery in the West India colonies of Europe after a slaveholding nation shall have been established on the shores of the Gulf of Mexico? What is to be the effect of such an establishment upon the African slave trade when the new slaveholding nation desires to grasp not only Mexico, but also even the islands of all the European states within the Gulf. I know that these questions have not yet presented themselves in Europe, but it is quite another thing to suppose that they will be left to sleep while the question of intervention is considered by the governments concerned.
I am, sir, your obedient servant,
James S. Pike, Esq., &c., &c., &c.