Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume XLI, Global Issues II

354. Paper Prepared in the Office of Environment and Health, Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, Department of State¹

Washington, November 3, 1986

PRINCIPLES FOR AN INTERNATIONAL PROTOCOL ON STRATOSPHERIC OZONE PROTECTION

Based on current scientific understanding, considerable risks may exist to human health and the environment from continued or expanded global emissions of fully halogenated alkanes. Considerable evidence exists, both in theory and from models, linking these chemicals to depletion of ozone. However, remaining scientific uncertainties prevent any conclusive statement concerning safe levels of emissions. As a result, we believe that these chemicals should be considered suspect, and, given the substantial human health and environmental risks, we believe that a prudent protocol should provide for the following:

I. As a first step, a near-term freeze on the emissions of all fully halogenated alkanes (i.e., CFC 11, 12, 113, and Halon 1211 and 1301) at or near current levels;

II. A long-term scheduled phaseout of emissions of these chemicals; this phaseout would be implemented, subject to any modification resulting from periodic review as defined in III;

III. A periodic review of the protocol provisions based upon a regular assessment of scientific understanding of changes to the ozone layer and its effects on health and the environment. The review could remove or add chemicals from the phaseout, change the schedule, or set an emission reduction target short of phaseout.

A protocol based on the above elements should have the following characteristics:

(a) provide a simple approach to facilitate agreement on an acceptable protocol within the current UNEP timetable;²

(b) be capable of gaining general acceptance among the major producer nations who are now and will remain the primary source of emissions of these chemicals;

(c) provide certainty for industrial planning in order to minimize the costs of reducing reliance on these chemicals;

(d) provide adequate time for shifting away from ozone-depleting chemicals to avoid social and economic disruption, while at the same time give a strong incentive for the rapid development and employment of emission controls, recycling, and benign substitute chemicals (i.e., a technology-forcing approach);

(e) take into full consideration scientific uncertainties and promote future improvements in understanding by instituting a requirement for reassessing the goal and timing of emission limits if changes in science suggest such action is warranted;

(f) address all fully halogenated alkanes so that the principal anthropogenic sources of atmospheric chlorine and bromine are included;

(g) allow flexibility for industrial planning by allowing trade-offs among these chemicals based on their relative ozone-depleting effects;

(h) allow flexibility for limited continued use of those chemicals which are of highest social value and for which no substitutes presently exist; and

(i) create incentives to participate in the protocol by regulating relevant trade between parties and non-parties.

1. Source: Department of State, Chemicals, Hazardous Waste, and Ozone, 1982–1989, Lot 92D227, Ms. Butcher. No classification marking. Drafted on November 3. An unsigned November 5 covering memorandum reads: “The attached paper outlines principles for an international protocol for the protection of the stratospheric ozone layer, which the United States Government proposes to put forward for discussion in international negotiations scheduled to take place December 1–5, 1986. The principles are being presented to governments in advance of the negotiations for their consideration and comment.”
2. In telegram 278413 to Brussels, September 11, 1985, the Department discussed the schedule of future ozone negotiations, including the UN Environment Programme timetable. (Department of State, Central Foreign Policy File, D850643–0135)