236. Telegram From the Embassy in Pakistan to the Department of State1
2341. CINCPAC for POLAD. Subject: Pakistan Politics.
Summary: The fundamental political fact of Pakistani life in the wake of the election is that PM Bhutto retains his dominant position.2 Although the campaign evidenced deep-seated and widespread dissatisfaction with the Bhutto government and the PPP, and disclosed more clearly than before the erosion of the PM’s own personal popularity, the election outcome demonstrated that by whatever means Bhutto was able to turn back the challenge of an unexpectedly united opposition and maintain his supremacy. Within the PPP itself, his partymen are if possible even more dependent on him for their political standing than they were before the election.
The PNA’s decision not to contest the provincial elections or take the 37–38 seats it won in the National Assembly will mark the end of Pakistan’s fragile multiparty legislative system, assuming all MNAs-elect accept the Alliance directive. Pakistan party politics will consist entirely of extra-legislative agitation. The form that this will take is still to be charted by the opposition. Arguments over whether the conduct of the polling justified the decision, and whether it was tactically sound, are likely to continue. Our own tentative conclusion is that substantial tampering probably did take place on March 7, and that while it did not determine the ultimate outcome of the election, which we believe the PPP would have won anyway, it did influence the margin of the Bhutto victory. The verdict of the Pak public [garble—is not] yet [garble—in but] we suspect that most Paks are likely to draw some conclusion. Whatever tactics the opposition now adopts in carrying out its new agitational approach, and however widely held the view that it was cheated on March 7, we have little doubt that the government will be able to contain its challenge in the near term. End summary.
[Omitted here is the body of the telegram.]
- Source: National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D770082–1099. Confidential; Priority. Sent for information to Dacca, Kabul, New Delhi, Tehran, Karachi, Lahore, and CINCPAC.↩
- In telegram 2300 from Islamabad, March 9, the Embassy reported that in Pakistan’s March 7 general election, the “latest unofficial returns indicate that with 196 of 200 seats declared, PPP has won 154, PNA 33, and QML one.” (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D770080–1308)↩