228. Memorandum From Secretary of State Vance to President Carter1
[Omitted here is material unrelated to Rhodesia.]
2. Rhodesia. In his recent visit to Salisbury, Ambassador Low found most Rhodesian politicians determined to proceed with the scheduled April elections, optimistic about a relatively high turnout, and convinced that Muzorewa will emerge the winner.2 Few give serious thought to a subsequent election under UN supervision, but Muzorewa and Sithole speak of “keeping the door open” and many anticipate the possibility of further negotiations with at least one of the external parties. In this regard, accommodation between Muzorewa and Mugabe is widely viewed as offering an end to the fighting but Muzorewa’s dependence on white political and military power will make such a deal virtually impossible.3
Smith’s continued involvement in politics is now largely accepted—even by those who previously opposed him—as essential to maintaining white confidence and possibly to a future political accommodation with the external parties. There is nevertheless a recognition that the war will not only continue but escalate.
- Source: Carter Library, Plains File, Subject File, Box 39, State Department Evening Reports, 3/79. Secret. Carter initialed the memorandum and wrote at the top of the page: “Cy.”↩
- Low visited Salisbury March 21–24. In telegram 76365 to London, March 27, the Department transmitted the conclusions resulting from the meetings with Rhodesian politicians. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D790141–0789)↩
- Carter wrote in the left-hand margin: “I need a better assessment of what to do if election turns out well.”↩