339. Telegram From the Department of State to All Diplomatic and Consular Posts1
143816. For Chief of Mission from Deputy Secretary. Subject: World Population Growth.
1. The eighteen-agency NSC Ad Hoc Group on Population Policy, chaired by the Department of State, has just released its fourth annual report, copies of which will shortly be pouched to you.2
2. Because of the important implications of world population growth for U.S. foreign policy, and the growing urgency for concerted and expanded national and international efforts to address this problem, I hope that you and your senior staff will give careful attention to the report.
3. The report notes that, during the nineteen-seventies, much of the economic gains and increased food output of the third world were cancelled out by population growth. Even allowing for continuing slowdown in the rate of growth, world population is likely to increase from the current 4.4 billion to over 6 billion by the year 2000—a growth in only two decades which is almost as much as the entire world population as recently as 1930. This is the equivalent of adding more than twenty new countries the current size of Bangladesh.
Much of this increase—90 percent—will occur in low-income countries. The proportion of industrialized countries’ population in the world total is likely to decline from 33 percent in 1950 to only 20 percent by 2000.
Many developing countries of importance to U.S. security are experiencing some combination of fast population growth, high and [Page 1137] growing population density relative to arable land, massive rural-urban migration, and high unemployment/underemployment—particularly among urban youth. These factors add up to an increasing potential for economic and political instability, social unrest and extremism, mass migrations, and possible international conflicts over control of land and resources.
U.S. international population policy is predicated on the premise that, while the demographic situation is obviously serious, it is not hopeless. China, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, and Mexico are among countries which have brought birth rates down through concerted policies. Yet, further fertility reduction will require considerably more intensive, and expensive, efforts in terms of education, motivation, and expansion of family planning services.
By virtue of experience and resources, the U.S. cannot relinquish the leadership role in this area. Notwithstanding current budgetary stringencies, the report renews the 1975 NSC recommendation for a “major expansion” of U.S. funding for both bilateral and multilateral population programs and for biomedical research, and recommends high-level diplomatic support for population programs.
4. Action requested: (A) I urge you to consider ways in which you and your Country Team can support national and international efforts to address the problem of excessive population growth. Those of you in donor or potential donor countries should seek ways to encourage expanded assistance to multilateral agencies such as UN Fund for Population Activities and through bilateral aid programs, as well as a greater priority for biomedical research in human reproduction. Chiefs of Mission in developing countries experiencing excessive population growth should seek appropriate ways of supporting and encouraging effective local efforts, especially in cooperation with other multilateral and bilateral donors.
(B) Department would welcome comments on the report, addressed to the Coordinator of Population Affairs. We would also appreciate regular reporting by missions of important local developments, including analysis of policy changes and statements by national leaders, parliamentarians, opposition leaders, religious leaders, etc.
- Source: National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D800268–0174. Unclassified. Drafted by Benedick; cleared by Pickering, Houdek, Lamberty, McNutt, Laase, NEA/RA, and Bremer; approved by Christopher. Pickering distributed a draft of the telegram and copies of the report of the NSC Ad Hoc Group, executive summary, and conclusions section to Christopher under a May 22 action memorandum. According to stamped and handwritten notations on the May 22 memorandum, Christopher indicated his approval of the telegram on May 30. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, P800080–0383)↩
- The Department transmitted the fourth annual report to all diplomatic posts in airgram A–1142, June 10. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, P800077–0505) In an April 18 NSC Global Issues Cluster Evening Report, Oplinger wrote that he had met with Benedick, who indicated that the President would receive the annual report in late April. Oplinger added, “As a complete tyro, I learned one first principle: you have to be a hopeless optimist to work on this problem.” (Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Global Issues—Oplinger/Bloomfield Subject File, Box 37, Evening Reports: 4–6/80)↩