320. Editorial Note
Beginning in October 1978, the Department of State Bulletin serialized three articles written by Coordinator of Population Affairs Ambassador Marshall Green and his Special Assistant Robert A. Feary and assisted by Department of State demographer Lydia K. Giffler. Entitled “World Population: The Silent Explosion,” the articles outlined the central issues of population growth and global responses to the problem. Part 1, published in October, provided a brief historical overview of the population explosion, postulated as to the distribution of the world’s population by 2000, and discussed the implications of classical demographic transition theory. (Department of State Bulletin, October 1978, pages 45–54)
The second installment of “Silent Explosion,” printed in the November issue of Department of State Bulletin, explored the negative consequences of rapid population growth upon the world food system, national economies, social services, the environment, and internal and external politics:
“The overpopulation problem is most often viewed in broad economic, social, and political terms. But it is fundamentally a problem of the frustrations, deprivation, and suffering of millions of individual human beings, predominantly in the developing countries. Millions of women are caught up in a cycle of endless childbearing, wasted health, [Page 1074] drudgery, and limited life expectancy. Vast numbers of children are born into a future of undernourishment, physical and mental impairment, and virtually no prospect of advancement and a better life. Multitudes of adults and youths are without meaningful employment.
“Population pressures are by no means the only cause of these conditions. Poverty and suffering existed long before there were such pressures. But the central importance of overpopulation in the syndrome of mounting demands on diminishing life support systems, and stationary or declining living standards over most of the developing world, is clear.” (Department of State Bulletin, November 1978, page 4)
Part 2 also described multilateral efforts toward curbing population growth, notably the 1974 adoption of the World Population Plan of Action (WPPA), and national efforts toward instituting family planning programs.
The December issue of Department of State Bulletin featured the third and final part of “Silent Explosion.” After offering several “priority action areas” designed to improve the effectiveness of population programs, the authors highlighted U.S. international population policies, notably the 1977 amendment of the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act (FAA), the establishment of the House Select Committee on Population in September 1977, and the work of the National Security Council Ad Hoc Group on Population Policy. Asserting that the world could no longer “gloss over population problems,” Green, Feary, and Giffler concluded:
“Whether world population stabilizes at 8, 11, or more billions, one thing seems clear: There will be mounting pressure on resources and environment everywhere. Awareness of this fact has been slow in coming, but there is now widening recognition that lifestyles are going to have to change. Fortunately, many religions and cultures already reflect appreciation of the intangible and spiritual over the material. But anguishing adjustments remain in store.
“The world population explosion impacts on almost all global issues—food, energy, environment, North-South disparities, and, most fundamentally of all, improving conditions of life for countless millions of people. Whether the world community can act adequately and in time to stabilize population levels will critically affect the future of mankind.” (Department of State Bulletin, December 1978, page 47)
In a November 16 action memorandum to Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, sent through Under Secretary of State for Security Assistance, Science, and Technology Lucy Wilson Benson, Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs Thomas Pickering suggested that the Department transmit copies of “Silent Explosion” to all Chiefs of Mission. Commented Pickering, “I believe it should be required reading for all U.S. Ambassadors and [Page 1075] principal staff, as a useful aid in their continuing diplomatic contacts with foreign leaders, for it has been demonstrated that leadership commitment to national population programs is a vital element in their success.” He stressed Vance’s “personal involvement,” and proposed that Vance send a personal message to all Ambassadors. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, P780176–1158) A prototype letter, prepared in the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, urged Ambassadors to “examine and use” “Silent Explosion” and offer any thoughts as to “how the United States and the international community might more effectively address this transcendent global problem.” (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, P780176–1160) According to a January 22, 1979, memorandum from Executive Secretary of the Department Peter Tarnoff to all Assistant Secretaries and office heads, the Department had sent copies of “Silent Explosion” to all Chiefs of Mission under a personal letter from Vance. (Department of State, RG 59, S/S (I): Principal Memoranda (To/From for 1979—S D P E C T M): Lot 81D117, S/S Memo File Jan–Feb–Mar 1979)