377. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon, Washington, October 29, 1973.1 2
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
INFORMATION
October 29, 1973
MEMORANDUM FOR: THE PRESIDENT
FROM: HENRY A. KISSINGER [BS initialed
for HK]
SUBJECT: Thailand: Reappraisal of Fall of Thanom
Government
The events of the past week and additional evidence of the circumstances surrounding the fall of the Thanom Government on October 15 permit the following tentative appraisal of the upheaval — which has brought with it the first realignment of basic political power in Thailand since 1932.
The immediate cause of Thanom’s ouster was quite clearly his Government’s mishandling of the latest and largest student demonstration of the past year — which this time turned violent when the Government struck forcefully against them.
The underlying cause probably lies in the slowly accumulated frustrations of Thailand’s urban population over the Thanom Government’s failure to deal with basic problems, such as inflation and excessive official corruption. Urban resentment probably was heightened by the paradox of the Thanom Government: it had, in its “coup” of late 1971, forcefully set aside the constitution and parliament — ending Thailand’s three-year experiment in representative government — claiming that the urgent need to find solutions to the nation’s basic problems made the encumbrances of representative government intolerable. The students, increasingly in the past year, have given voice to the frustrations of bureaucrats, intellectuals, former politicians, and the urban population of Bangkok generally.
New realignment of power
The manner of the Thanom Government’s quick demise has brought the King to the fore as probably the single most powerful individual in Thailand — thus possibly ending the figurehead role to which the military relegated the monarchy in 1932. The Thai Army, which has since 1932 been the arbiter of politics, is at least temporarily on the defensive but remains the other basic political force. For the moment [Page 2] the Army seems content to let the King’s appointee, Prime Minister Sanya, try to put the situation back together again.
Sanya, who though widely respected has no independent political base of his own and is beholden to the King, must also get the support of the Army in order to move forward on the primary problem confronting his caretaker government — the drafting of a new constitution and holding new elections in the next six months. Sanya has formed a moderate cabinet, which, however, gives only three out of 13 portfolios to military men. He will be helped on the economic front by the excellent rice harvest in prospect, while Thailand’s internal insurgency should not pose a serious problem for him in this time frame.
The students, having succeeded in bringing down the Thanom Government, are for the moment quiescent. But having for the first time in Thai history made themselves a significant political force, they will likely be heard from again before long — probably on the issues of Thailand’s internal political future posed by the drafting of the new constitution.
Implications for U.S. interests
- — Foreign policy issues did not figure significantly in the upheaval, and, with the focus still on the internal scene, are less than likely to become a major issue in the immediate future.
- — The King, the Army, and Prime Minister Sanya share an essential consensus that the basic direction of Thailand’s foreign policy should continue.
- — There may be some pressure among Bangkok’s elite and the students for further U.S. force reductions and for accelerating the normalization of Thailand’s relations with the PRC. The Sanya Government is likely to be more sensitive to such pressures than its predecessors, although it should be capable of containing them.
- Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 566, Country Files, Far East, Thailand, Volume 11, October 1973–. Secret. Sent for information. Scowcroft initialed the memorandum on behalf of Kissinger. A notation on the memorandum indicates, “The President has seen.”↩
- Kissinger offered Nixon a reappraisal of the change of government in Thailand.↩