Office of the Historian

223. Telegram 6615 From the Embassy in Japan to the Department of State, May 6, 1976, 1015Z.1 2

May 6, 1976, 1015Z

TELEGRAM
Department of State
TOKYO 6615

O R 061015Z MAY 76

FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8965
INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY SEOUL
AMEMBASSY TAIPEI
AMCONSUL HONG KONG
USLO PEKING
CINCPAC HONOLULU
COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA

TOKYO 6615

CINCPAC FOR POLAD

E.O. 11652: GDS
TAGS: PINT, PFOR, JA

SUBJ: MIKI NOW VULNERABLE

SUMMARY. THE CONSERVATIVE POWER STANDOFF, WHICH BROUGHT MIKI TO POWER AND WHICH HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN PRESERVING HIM, IS NOW CRUMBLING. FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS STEMMING FROM LOCKHEED, THE INFLUENCE OF FORMER PRIMIN TANAKA HAS DECLINED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST THREE MONTHS. AS A RESULT, DEPUTY PRIMIN FUKUDA IS NOW WIDELY VIEWED AS MIKI’S ALMOST CERTAIN SUCCESSOR, FINMIN OHIRA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD SUPPORT OF FUKUDA AND TANAKA HIMSELF REPORTEDLY HAS BOWED TO A FUKUDA CANDIDACY. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT MIKI IS NOW VULNERABLE IN A NEW AND FUNDAMENTAL WAY. BUT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW MIKI MIGHT BE TOPPLED. SEVERAL SCENARIOS FOR POSSIBLE MIKI OUSTER SEEM TO US PLAUSIBLE, BUT NOT CONVINCING. ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE NAMING OF A CURRENT CABINET MEMBER OR LDP FACTION LEADER IN CONNECTION WITH LOCKHEED BRIBES.) THERE ARE ALSO IMPORTANT FACTORS WHICH WORK IN FAVOR OF MIKI’S CONTINUANCE IN OFFICE. NO ONE WANTS HIS JOB UNTIL LOCKHEED IS SOMEHOW “RESOLVED,” HE IS IN POSITION TO ORCHESTRATE THE IMPACT OF LOCKHEED DISCLOSURES, AND HIS “CLEAN” IMAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER TO CONSERVATIVES IN THE WAKE OF LOCKHEED. THE MEDIA STILL, BY AND LARGE, SUPPORTS MIKI AND THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT FUKUDA HAS THE STOMACH FOR AN OPEN SHOWDOWN WITH MIKI — AND THAT MAY WELL BE CRUCIAL. FINALLY, MIKI HAS SHOWN HIMSELF TO HAVE UNUSUAL TENACITY AND SKILL AS A POLITICAL INFIGHTER, IN ADDITION TO HIS ADVANTAGES AS INCUMBENT. THUS, WHILE MIKI IS NOW VULNERABLE AND HIS REPLACEMENT BY FUKUDA COULD COME SUDDENLY, WE BELIEVE HIS CHANCES ARE BETTER THAN EVER OF SURVIVING UNTIL THE LOWER HOUSE ELECTION—NOW WIDELY EXPECTED IN THE FALL— AND, IF THE LDP PERFORMS REASONABLY WELL, FOR SOMETIME BEYOND. END SUMMARY.

1.
IT WAS A POWER STANDOFF WITHIN THE RULING CONSERVATIVE PARTY (LDP) WHICH FIRST BROUGHT PRIMIN MIKI TO POWER. MORE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR, IT WAS THAT SAME ROUGH EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN DEPUTY PRIMIN FUKUDA’S FORCES, ON THE ONE HAND, AND FORMER PRIMIN TANAKA’S FORCES SUPPORTING FINMIN OHIRA, ON THE OTHER, THAT HAS ASSURED MIKI’S CONTINUANCE IN POWER. EACH SIDE HAS FRUSTRATED THE STRATEGIES OF THE OTHER AS THEY SOUGHT IN DIFFERENT WAYS AND AT DIFFERENT TIMES TO TOPPLE MIKI. THE CONTINUING STALEMATE ALSO FOCUSED ATTENTION ON A HANDFUL OF OLDER “COMPROMISE” CANDIDATES (EG, SHIINA) AS POSSIBLE MIKI SUCCESSORS. IT ALSO GAVE RISE TO RECURRENT POTENTIAL “CRISES” OF THE MIKI ADMINISTRATION WHICH, IN RETROSPECT, MIKI ALWAYS SURVIVED WITH REMARKABLE EASE. IN SHORT, IT WAS THIS STANDOFF WHICH, IN THE JAPANESE PHRASE, HAS PROVIDED MIKI’S “STABILITY BASED ON INSTABILITY.”
2.
BUT THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS WITHIN THE LDP ARE NOW CHANGING: THE STANDOFF IS CRUMBLING. EARLY THIS YEAR, TANAKA’S POWER WAS CLEARLY RISING AND FUKUDA’S PRIME MINISTERIAL PROSPECTS APPEARED DIM INDEED. BUT THREE MONTHS AGO THE UNEXPECTED ERUPTION OF THE LOCKHEED AFFAIR HERE REVERSED THE TABLES. THE EARLY APPEARANCE OF TANAKA-INTIMATE KENJI OSANO’S NAME, THE STILL UNANSWERED QUESTIONS SURROUNDING TANAKA’S FINANCES WHICH OCCASIONED HIS 1974 FALL FROM POWER, AND THE FACT THAT TANAKA AND TANAKA MEN WHEREIN POWER AT THE TIME OF THE TRI-STAR DECISION, ALL COMBINED TO CONCENTRATE SUSPICION — SOME WOULD SAY CERTAIN KNOWLEDGE — QUESTION HAS BEEN ONLY WHETHER “THEY” WOULD BE CAUGHT THIS TIME. BUT WHETHER OR NOT THESE SUSPICIONS ARE JUSTIFIED, THEIR WIDESPREAD CURRENCY AND RESULTING POLITICAL EFFECT HAVE UNEXPECTEDLY AND DRAMATICALLY ALTERED TANAKA’S INFLUENCE WITHIN THE LDP DURING THE PAST THREE MONTHS. THIS, IN TURN, HAS PROFOUNDLY CHANGED CONSERVATIVE DYNAMICS WITH THESE IMPORTANT RESULTS:
  • —FUKUDA IS NOW WIDELY VIEWED THROUGHOUT THE LDP AND BUSINESS COMMUNITY AS THE ALMOST CERTAIN SUCCESSOR TO PRIMIN MIKI. IN ADDITION, WE WERE TOLD BY A FUKUDA-INTIMATE THAT FUKUDA IS NOW THINKING (OF THE TONE TO SET FOR HIS ADMINISTRATION) AND TALKING (CABINET PERSONNEL) LIKE A PRIME MINISTER — THIS FOR THE FIRST TIME TO OUR KNOWLEDGE.
  • —AFTER MONTHS OF FALSE RUMORS, OHIRA APPEARS NOW TO BE MOVING TOWARD SUPPORT OF THE FUKUDA CANDIDACY. THE DIET SECRETARY OF ONE OF THE PRINCIPALS INVOLVED, TOLD US THAT THE FIRST INFORMAL NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN TOP LIEUTENANTS OF THE TWO FACTIONS TOOK PLACE APRIL 30. INTERESTINGLY, THE FUKUDA MAN’S OPENING LINE WAS REPORTEDLY, “ DOES OHIRA WANT TO COMMIT DOUBLE SUICIDE WITH TANAKA?”
  • —THE CANDIDACIES OF SENIOR LDP POLITICOS ACCEPTABLE TO BOTH FUKUDA AND TANAKA, SUCH AS SHIINA, HORI, MAEO, ET AL. — BADLY FLAWED IN ANY EVENT — ARE NOW NO LONGER MATTERS OF SERIOUS DISCUSSION. MOST EXPECT THESE MEN TO DRIFT TOWARD FUKUDA SOONER OR LATER.
  • —AND AS THE DEPARTMENT IS AWARE FROM OTHER SOURCES, TANKA HIMSELF IS REPORTED TO HAVE BOWED TO A FUKUDA CANDIDACY. WE HAVE ALSO INDIRECTLY CONFIRMED THIS. IT MAKES GOOD SENSE, OF COURSE, FOR TANAKA TO USE HIS RAPIDLY WANING INFLUENCE TO HELP HIS FRIENDS (EG, OHIRA) — AND PROTECT HIMSELF.
  • —THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT MIKI IS NOW VULNERABLE IN A NEW AND FUNDAMENTAL WAY.
3.
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, ON THE CRUCIAL QUESTIONS OF WHEN AND HOW MIKI MIGHT BE OUSTED. THOSE CLOSE TO FUKUDA NOW SAY THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE IS WHETHER MIKI SHOULD BE REPLACED BY THEIR MAN BEFORE OR AFTER THE LOWER HOUSE ELECTION. THERE ARE MANY WHO FEEL IT SHOULD DEFINITELY BE BEFORE, AND SOME EVEN EXPECT IT TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THEY POSIT SCENARIOS LIKE THESE:
  • —INEVITABLE — AND NECESSARY— DISCLOSURE OF THE NAMES OF LOCKHEED CULPRITS (EXPECTED IN LATE MAY-EARLY JUNE) WILL RESULT IN A CABINET CRISIS AND MIKI’S DOWNFALL.(POSSIBLE IN OUR VIEW ONLY IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT A CURRENT CABINET MEMBER AND/OR LDP FACTION LEADER IS NAMES.)
  • —TO PROTEST (ALMOST CERTAIN) DIET FAILURE OF BUDGET-RELATED LEGISLATION, FINMIN OHIRA WILL RESIGN FROM THE CABINET, PROVOKING A CABINET CRISIS AND A MIKI DOWNFALL. (IN VIRTUALLY THE SAME CIRCUMSTANCES LAST YEAR, HE DIDN’T.)
  • — AN EFFORT TO REPLACE LDP SECGEN NAKASONE, NOW ALMOST UNIVERSALLY THOUGHT DESIRABLE WITHIN THE LDP, WILL RESULT IN A CABINET CRISIS AND A MIKI DOWNFALL,(NAKASONE AND MIKI WOULD FIND COMMON CAUSE IN OPPOSING THIS.)
  • —THERE ARE ALSO THOSE WHO BELIEVE THAT THE PARTY ELDERS CAN, ON THE BASIS ON THE NEW POLITICAL CONSTELLATION, FORCE MIKI TO RESIGN AT ANY TIME OF THEIR CHOOSING. BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG MEDIA CRITICISM OR A “LOST” ELECTION, IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER THE ELDERS NOW HAVE THIS POWER—IF THEY EVER DID.
4.
MOREOVER, A NUMBER OF FACTORS CONTINUE TO WORK IN MIKI’S FAVOR. FOR EXAMPLE.
  • —NOW ONE WISHES TO EASE HIM OUT BEFORE LOCKHEED IS SOMEHOW “RESOLVED,” A PROCESS WHICH MAY TAKE SOME TIME. (FUKUDA-OHIRA DISCUSSIONS ARE ALSO UNLIKELY TO SURFACE PUBLICLY BEFORE A LOCKHEED RESOLUTION, SINCE FUKUDA REPORTEDLY FEARS POSSIBLE GUILT BY ASSOCIATION AND CLEMENCY REQUESTS FROM THE TANAKA-OHIRA CAMP.)
  • —MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE, MIKI IS IN POSITION TO ORCHESTRATE THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF LOCKHEED DISCLOSURES TO HIS ADVANTAGE.
  • —ASSUMING, AS EVERYONE DOES, THAT MIKI HIMSELF IS NOT INVOLVED, HIS “CLEAN” IMAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER TO CONSERVATIVES FACING AN ELECTION ON THE HEELS OF SCANDAL. (WE HAVE IT ONE GOOD AUTHORITY THAT EVEN LONGTIME MIKI CRITIC, LDP EXECUTIVE COUNCIL CHAIRMAN NADAO, BELIEVES MIKI MUST BE SUPPORTED UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION.)
  • —IN THE PAST, WIDESPREAD MEDIA CRITICISM HAS BEEN A CUSTOMARY PRELUDE TO OUSTER OF A PRIME MINISTER. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE ONE HINT OF POSSIBLE CHANGE, MIKI CONTINUES TO ENJOY SUBSTANTIAL MEDIA SUPPORT.
  • —AN OPEN CHALLENGE MAY WELL BE NECESSARY TO OUST HIM. FUKUDA HAS PERSISTENTLY REFUSED TO DO SO AND IT CAN BE ARGUES PLAUSIBLY THAT HE WILL CONTINUE TO SHY AWAY.
  • —FINALLY, THERE IS THE NOT INCONSIDERABLE POWER OF INCUMBENCY AND MIKI’S DEMONSTRATED TENACITY AND REMARKABLE SKILL IN MANEUVERING AMONG HIS ENEMIES. IN SUM, WHILE CONDITIONS NOW EXIST FOR A SUCCESSFUL CHALLENGE TO MIKI, THERE IS NO ASSURANCE THAT A CHALLENGE WILL BE SUCCESSFUL.
5.
ALL OF THIS LEADS TO OUR ASSESSMENT THAT MIKI’S CHANCES OF SURVIVING UNTIL THE LOWER HOUSE ELECTION — NOW WIDELY EXPECTED IN THE FALL — AR BETTER THAN EVEN, AND, IF HE MAKES IT THAT FAR, A REASONABLE SUCCESSFUL LDP ELECTION PERFORMANCE (IE, MAINTAINING MORE OR LESS ITS PRESENT 274 SEATS) WOULD GIVE MIKI A NEW AND SOMEWHAT LONGER LEASE ON POLITICAL LIFE. BUT IT WON’T BE EASY. HE IS NOW A MARKED MAN, VULNERABLE AS NEVER BEFORE AND HIS REPLACEMENT BY FUKUDA COULD COME QUITE SUDDENLY. A MISTAKE THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS MERELY COSTLY COULD NOW PROVE FATAL.

HODGSON

  1. Source: National Archives, Record Group 59, Central Foreign Policy Files. Confidential; Immediate. Repeated to the Embassies in Moscow, Seoul, Taipei, to the Consulate in Hong Kong, to the Liaison Office in Beijing, to CINCPAC in Honolulu, and to COMUS Japan in Yokota.↩
  2. The embassy analyzed Japanese domestic politics.↩