280. Memorandum for the Record1
Washington, July 28, 1964.
SUBJECT
- Notes on Luncheon Meeting attended by the President, Secretary
McNamara, Secretary
Rusk, McGeorge Bundy, Mr. McCone, in the Presidentʼs private
dining room Tuesday—28 July 1964
[Page 676]
[Omitted here is discussion of Japan air routes and Vietnam.]
3. I reported on the withdrawals from Cuba following the substance of the
attached memorandum. I specifically stated that we could not say
positively that surface-to-air missiles had been turned over to the
Cubans; there was no way to know whether or not the Soviets “kept a
finger on the trigger”. I said that I believed that Khrushchev did not
want a confrontation with the United States, that he knew such a
confrontation would be created by a shootdown of the U–2 and that I
would be very surprised if he felt sufficiently confident in Castroʼs ability and veracity to turn
these weapons over to him unrestricted with all of the consequences if
Castro should use them in an
emotional fit of anger. I said that intelligence could not reveal the
true situation, other than this we felt that all military units have
been withdrawn from Cuba, that all equipment was now in Cuban hands,
that the communications systems except for one Navy link were operated
by the Cubans, and that the 1500 to 2500 remaining Soviets were military
advisors.
[Omitted here is discussion of the MLF, the Chinese nuclear danger, and
domestic politics.]
Attachment
Washington, July 28, 1964.
Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence
Agency2
SUBJECT
- Soviet Military Personnel Withdrawals from Cuba
- 1.
- Since the missile crisis of 1962, some 20,000 Soviet military
personnel have left Cuba in four major withdrawal periods, the
peaks of which occurred in November 1962, March 1963, November
1963, and June 1964. About 5,000 personnel were withdrawn during
each of these periods, the most recent period extending from
early May to the present during which time 14 Soviet passenger
ships sailed between Cuba and the USSR.
- 2.
- At the end of 1963, as the result of an examination of the
probable number of Soviet military personnel believed to have
been withdrawn from Cuba since the estimated high of 22,500
troops in October 1962 and of the probable Soviet personnel
strength in each of the
[Page 677]
weapon systems remaining on the island, we estimated that as
many as seven thousand Soviet servicemen remained.
- 3.
- Since that estimate was made, twenty Soviet passenger ships
have called at Cuban ports, 14 of them in the last three months.
Few military passengers were on the ships calling between
January and April, and military personnel departures were
probably offset by arrivals. Extra ships were scheduled
beginning in May, however, and at least 5,000 Soviet military
personnel along with a few dependents, agricultural technicians,
and Cuban students departed Cuba for the USSR. No more than 800
passengers are known to have arrived in Cuba on these 14 ships,
and almost all of these were Cubans who arrived on the last two
ships.
- 4.
- We believe that the last major withdrawal of Soviet military
personnel has now been completed, and that only about 2,000
Soviet military technicians and advisors remain on the island.
All Soviet communications links within Cuba (except for one
naval link which will probably terminate operations this week)
have been deactivated or turned over to the Cubans, and Cuban
forces have apparently assumed full control over the operation
of all Soviet weapons remaining on the island. No Soviet
operational or combat units are known to be on the
island.
[Omitted here is a discussion of specific ship movements and
photographic reconnaissance flights.]
