182. Intelligence Memorandum1
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE IAPF
Summary
The withdrawal of the Inter-American Peace Force (IAPF) in late September will remove the primary element that has ensured Dominican stability during the past 16 months. Although there is presently no evidence that the IAPF ʼs departure in itself will serve as the immediate trigger for a coup or insurgency, the chances for a confrontation between Balaguer and dissatisfied elements are likely to increase appreciably over the ensuing months.
Balaguer has not developed a political base strong enough to withstand severe reactions to his reforms, particularly those affecting right-wing military elements. He will have to balance carefully the opposing political forces if he is to implement his program without the backing of something like the IAPF. If the President succeeds in implementing those reforms through which he seeks to curb the power of right-wing military elements prior to the IAPF ʼs departure—and then can make them stick—his chances for retaining power will be improved. It is by no means certain, however, that he can successfully negotiate this Dominican tightrope.
[Omitted here is the discussion section of the memorandum.]
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Dominican Republic, Vol. XVI. Secret; No Foreign Dissem. Prepared in the Office of Current Intelligence of the CIA and coordinated with the Office of National Estimates.↩