229. Memorandum From the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow) to President Johnson1
SUBJECT
- China’s Vaulting Chaos
Mao’s regime is in serious difficulty, to a degree that civil war has become a distinct possibility.
Months of growing chaos in the top leadership are now followed by widespread resistance to pro-Mao elements in Central, South and East China, as Mao’s Red Guards and other “rebel” groups have attempted to move the Cultural Revolution to farms and factories. You have noted reports of violent clashes in Canton, Foochow, Shanghai, Nanking, the Chusan Islands and Peking itself, and of the breakdown of rail service in several sectors. In Nanking large-scale arrests (apparently of pro-Mao elements!) by Army and public security forces have been reported.
The source of most of our information on this highly confused situation remains press reports of “wall newspapers” in Peking. However, both Peking and Shanghai broadcasts have now confirmed serious resistance, and have warned of adverse effects on production. At the same time the Peking broadcast insists “It is an erroneous point of view that the Great Cultural Revolution antagonizes the development of production!” Mao forces are evidently determined to go through with their attempted “proletarianization” of the nation despite mounting costs now threatening the regime itself.
Most of the clashes have occurred in areas where Propaganda Chief T’ao Chu, number four in the Peking hierarchy, retains strong support of the party machinery. Much of this resistance has doubtless been triggered by recent official attacks on T’ao, principally on the part of Mao’s wife. Attacks on T’ao were probably in turn prompted by his attempts to protect provincial party cadre who are opposing the Mao-Lin line.
The battle is clearly drawn. On Mao and Lin’s side appear to be:
- —a small and seemingly dwindling minority in the party;
- —probably the bulk of the seriously divided Red Guards; and
- —an indeterminate percentage of the armed forces.
Ranged against these are, apparently:
- —the bulk of both the leadership and the lesser party apparatus;
- —a goodly portion of the worker groups so far tested by Red Guard revolutionary activity; and
- —an unknown portion of the Army.
Much more resistance from workers and peasants seems sure to come, as Mao’s revolution is carried further into the provinces.
The big question mark is the direction in which the Army will finally lend its predominant support. It cannot stand aside much longer, if present chaos continues. If it proves to be as divided as other major elements of the nation have been, the “Mao dynasty” is in for more bloody convulsions, and almost certain demise.
Premier Chou remains the best hope of achieving a compromise in the interest of preserving the nation and the regime’s hard-won, limited accomplishments. However, Mao has made his war one of veritable “religious” fervor, and compromise now appears highly unlikely. We must expect one side or the other to win out. As of now the anti-Mao forces appear the stronger, and gaining. It is curious that Mao’s heir apparent, Lin Piao, has not appeared since November 26. Mao-Lin interests in Peking appear to have been left primarily in Madame Mao’s hands, and the precarious condition of those interests is underlined today by wall posters announcing the dissolution of the capital’s anti-Mao public security forces, and—perhaps the most significant straw in today’s East wind—other posters accusing National Defense Council Member, General Liu Chih-chien, of siding with the anti-Maoists.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, China, Vol. VIII. Secret.↩