317. Memorandum From the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow) to President Johnson1

Mr. President:

Herewith a message from Bill Sullivan,2 which states:

  • —trucks damaged and destroyed in Laos during November are already over 600;
  • —practically none of the dry-season cargo is getting as far south as Route 9; and
  • —if the rate continues, North Vietnam’s truck inventory could be wiped out by the end of the year—which would constitute a major but unpublicizable victory.

General Wheeler has asked DIA to evaluate the situation.

In the meantime, some preliminary observations.

  • —There has been a manyfold increase in trucks sighted, damaged, and destroyed compared with any previous period (Tab B).3
  • —Most of the traffic has been in the upper panhandle.
  • —Truckable mileage is 600 compared to 300 last November and 400 in September 1967, although only relatively short segments are in use.
  • —Surveillance has been more extensive this year.
  • —Weather has permitted large-scale trucking beginning the last week of October, whereas last year traffic flow was restricted until late November and December.

Increased truck activity could result from a combination of the following:

  • —enemy intent to accelerate military activity during the current dry season (Loch Ninh and Dak To);
  • —resupply effort to replace supplies expended during heavy enemy activity in I Corps this year;
  • —resupply to replace large amount of supplies destroyed in Laos (secondary explosions: 3,929 from Nov 1966–Sep 1967 versus 1,224 from Nov 1965–Sep 1966); and
  • —enemy effort to preposition supplies farther south in anticipation of the barrier.

W.W. Rostow 4
  1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Vietnam, 5 EE (1) Laos, 10/67–12/68. Top Secret. A note on the source text indicates it was for use at a luncheon meeting on November 28. The President met with Rusk, McNamara, Rostow, and Christian for lunch at 1 p.m. (Johnson Library, Rusk Appointment Book) No other record of this meeting has been found.
  2. Attached but not printed. It is a retyped copy of telegram 2912 from Vientiane, November 27. The Department of State copy is in Central Files, POL 27 VIET S.
  3. Tab B, attached but not printed, is a table depicting the number of vehicles sighted, destroyed, and damaged by air strikes from September 1966 to November 17, 1967, in the Laos Panhandle.
  4. Printed from a copy that bears this typed signature.