Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXVIII, Laos

287. National Intelligence Estimate¹

NIE 58–67

Washington, May 18, 1967.

SHORT-TERM POLITICAL PROSPECTS FOR LAOS

The Problem

To estimate the prospects for political stability in Laos over the next year or so. In addition, to estimate the reactions of Souvanna Phouma and the effect on his government of expanded Allied ground action in the Laos Panhandle. The reactions of other foreign governments to these courses of action are not considered.

Conclusions

A. During the past several years, the Kingdom of Laos has achieved a substantial degree of political stability. This rests, in part, on the international support which the Royal Lao Government has enjoyed since the 1962 Geneva settlement, support which Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma earnestly seeks to retain. More important, it rests on an understanding among Souvanna, the military, and—to a lesser degree—the conservatives and neutralists, which aims at preserving Lao independence and the attributes of neutrality and tripartitism. In the short term, at least, we see no serious diminution of military support for the regime, nor does a military-inspired coup attempt seem likely.

B. We believe that Souvanna, if approached officially, would disapprove any proposal put to him involving Allied ground action in the Laos Panhandle.² [11 lines of source text not declassified]

[Here follows the “Discussion” section of this estimate, comprising 6 pages.]

1. Source: Department of State, INR/EAP Files: Lot 90 D 165. Secret; Controlled Dissem. The Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State and Defense, and the NSA participated in the preparation of this estimate. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence to the U.S. Intelligence Board on May 18. All members of the Board concurred except the representatives of the AEC and FBI who abstained because the subject was outside their jurisdiction.
2. Mr. George C. Denney, for the Director of Intelligence and Research, Department of State, believes that Souvanna almost certainly would resign. Souvanna regards the preservation of the Geneva settlement as indispensable to the survival of Laos and would see the visible introduction of allied ground forces as signaling the abandonment of that settlement. He has made these points many times. If, despite his opposition, the actions contemplated in this sentence were undertaken, he would assume, against the background of previous US assurances to him, that the US had broken the relationship of confidence built up since 1962 and had lost interest in preserving the Geneva settlement and in his remaining in office. He would have no hope, therefore, that by remaining in office he could exercise any further influence on our courses of action. [Footnote in the source text.]