131. Summary Record of the 529th Meeting of the National Security Council,1
U.S. POLICY TOWARD LAOS
Director McCone introduced Mr. Ray Cline who read a paper2 on the intelligence now available which indicates greatly increased use of Laos for infiltration of men and materials from North to South Vietnam.
Mr. Cline reported that there had been an expansion of Pathet Lao forces in Laos. In addition, the North Vietnamese appear to be strengthening the Pathet Lao forces. There are no regular Chinese forces in Laos as far as we know. The Pathet Lao alone have only a 50–50 chance of overrunning all other non-Communist forces in Laos. However, if the Pathet Lao forces were joined by pro-Communist forces and Communist forces from Vietnam, they could overrun all Laos quickly without warning. The Communists appear to be moving to clear out rightist forces which are now in Communist controlled areas in Laos.
Mr. Cline read the Watch Committee conclusions (copy attached).2
The President was shown numerous aerial photographs which revealed major improvements in road networks, the effect of which is to improve Hanoi’s ability to back up forces in Laos or in South Vietnam.
Under Secretary Harriman told the President we are attempting to get the International Control Commission to send inspectors to the Plaine des Jarres in the hope that their presence would halt the fighting which apparently is now going on there. The situation in Laos is not clear but we are making an effort to force Siho,3 one of the rebel generals, to support continuation of Souvanna’s coalition government. Governor Harriman stated a requirement for low-level reconnaissance in Laos and favored sending non-U.S. patrols into Laos to try to find out the size of the military buildup.
The President asked whether Ambassador Lodge favored these proposals. Secretary McNamara said that Lodge did favor the suggestions but actually they would have little effect in South Vietnam. He added that Ambassador Unger opposed the proposals when asked about them some days ago.
[Page 277]Mr. McCone said the photographic intelligence shown the President was so new that there had been little time to analyze it. He said that neither the Secretary of Defense nor the Joint Chiefs had seen the pictures and asked for more time for the intelligence community to analyze the new information.
Under Secretary Harriman said the situation was urgent and he asked for authority to explore ways of finding out what was actually going on. Mr. Colby acknowledged that the pictures of the staging area in North Vietnam indicated a buildup but we do not know whether the additional forces are headed for South Vietnam or Laos. Secretary McNamara thought that it was essential for us to obtain additional information on the military buildup.
The President asked that the proposals be presented to Ambassador Unger again in the light of current developments so that he could give his best estimate of the political effect in Laos if the reconnaissance actions were taken. Mr. McCone was asked to present the new evidence to his evaluators and return with an intelligence community view. Further discussion of the subject was scheduled for Friday.