Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963, Volume XIV, Berlin Crisis, 1961–1962

65. Telegram From the Embassy in Germany to the Department of State¹

Bonn, July 12, 1961, 7 p.m.

76. As Department aware, indications are mounting of growing uneasiness among Soviet Zone populace. Evidence is found in (1) editorial exhortations of East German press; (2) Ulbricht’s attempts to reassure public opinion; (3) rising tide of refugee flow into West Berlin; (4) [less than 1 line of source text not declassified] reports.

While some measure of unrest can be attributed to spreading difficulties in economic field (where basic weaknesses were so clearly evinced at time of IZT denunciation last year), with consequence shortages and even rationing in certain sectors, it appears basic tension has resulted from belligerent tone of Soviet and East German propaganda re separate peace treaty and new status of West Berlin to be determined thereby.

Soviet Zone regime’s current attempts to hold popular concern in check will probably succeed for time being, but if Khrushchev and Ulbricht continue to build tension as action on separate treaty approaches, it seems to me most likely that refugee flow may increase to actual flood unless additional, harsher restrictive measures are taken against travel from Zone into East Berlin and thence across sector border. On other hand, if such restrictive measures introduced under existing strained conditions, with probability of further economic dislocations, I can foresee real possibility of explosion, [3 lines of source text not declassified].

It is of course somewhat early to forecast trend of events in Soviet Zone. I do not think it premature, however, to consider attitude we must take up should East German populace rise again. My own view is that for US to remain on sidelines in event another June 17² would mean end of our prestige and influence in Germany, even were FedRep and population in West to follow our precept.³

Dowling

1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, 762B.00/7-1261. Secret. Repeated to London, Paris, Moscow, and Berlin.
2. Reference is to the uprising in East Berlin and East Germany on June 17, 1953.
3. On July 22 the Department of State sent telegram 172 to Bonn outlining its views on the situation in East Germany. It speculated that either the flow of refugees would force the East Germans to take steps to control it or there might be serious disorders in the Zone. For text of this telegram and information on its drafting and the reaction to it in Bonn and Berlin, see Catudal, Kennedy and the Berlin Wall Crisis, pp. 187-191.