282. Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for European
Affairs (Kohler) to
Secretary of State Rusk1
Washington,
February 7,
1962.
There is attached a paper suggesting a number of points which you may
wish to cover during the White House meeting on Berlin scheduled for
February 9.2 It has been prepared in such a way that a copy could
be left with the President if you feel this is desirable.
Attachment3
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE ON BERLIN?
- 1.
- To Bury or Not to Bury? If the Soviets
want to bury the Berlin issue, is it in our interest to
encourage this or should we push for some new arrangement which
will provide a more definitive resolution of the question? The
present state of indecision creates problems for the NATO and US military build-up and
keeps the Western mood fluctuating from one extreme to the other
on the basis of rumors and speculation as to Soviet intentions.
On the other hand, no new and more or less formal arrangement
which the Soviets would accept is likely to be as favorable to
us as the status quo. Hence, on balance, if the Soviets give us
any indication that they would like to bury the Berlin question
or talk it to death, we would presumably wish to avoid saying or
doing anything which would run counter to such an objective.
Another possibility is that the Soviets may feel compelled at
some point to go ahead with their separate peace treaty but
reserve their prerogatives in the field of Allied access (a la
the Bolz-Zorin exchange of letters). This, too, would be a
desirable outcome from our point of view.
- 2.
- The French Problem. We have now reached
the point where we must reluctantly conclude that, within the
current framework of discussions with the Soviets, it will
probably be impossible to meet the French
[Page 794]
prerequisite of a détente for
their participation in negotiations. If such a détente can be
achieved, it will presumably only be after we have gone much
farther than the stage of exploratory talks. If the Soviets are
willing to bury the Berlin question, formal negotiations may not
be necessary or serve merely a camouflage function. At some
point soon we will have to come to grips with the question of
French non-participation. The legal problem can apparently be
surmounted, if the French do not seek actively to prevent
implementation of any agreement. On the other hand, we will
probably have to make one more effort, at least for the record,
to bring the French along.
- 3.
- Assuming the Thompson-Gromyko talks bog down completely and that
nothing comes out of the Roberts’ approach in Moscow,4 we seem to have the
following ways of keeping discussion of the Berlin question
alive either to ascertain once and for all whether the Soviets
wish to bury the question or try to find some basis for a modus
vivendi:
- a.
- A fresh Summit Meeting. This
can be ruled out at present, although a meeting between
the President and Khrushchev should be held in reserve for
a heightened crisis situation.
- b.
- The Secretary could accept Gromyko’s invitation5 to go to Moscow, perhaps on his
way to the Geneva meetings in mid-March. This might be
considered if the situation deteriorates markedly in the
next few weeks, but will probably not be
desirable.
- c.
- The Secretary could meet bilaterally
with Gromyko in Geneva on the fringes of
a possible conference of Foreign Ministers to start off
the disarmament discussions. This seems desirable and
probably inevitable whatever the intervening
developments. It might provide an opportunity to advance
the dialogue further at a high level and to ascertain
Soviet intentions more clearly.
- d.
- Transfer of discussions to
Washington. With the arrival of the new Soviet
Ambassador, Dobrynin, bilateral discussions here on
Berlin might be more fruitful. However, no matter what
his relationship to Moscow, Dobrynin will be at the end
of a long instruction line and any attempt to raise the
subject directly with Khrushchev would still have to revert
back to Moscow.
- e.
- Use of the British channel
including possibility of an intervention by Prime
Minister Macmillan. It is unlikely that Roberts can accomplish
anything which Thompson could not. Action by Macmillan cannot be
[Page 795]
excluded if
there should be a marked deterioration in the situation
or if the British are concerned about the development of
a total impasse.
- f.
- Bilateral talks between the Germans
and Soviets. The indications are that most
German officials, including Adenauer, are presently opposed to
bilateral talks with the Soviets, although a reply will
probably be made in due course to the Soviet memorandum
handed Kroll on
December 27, 1961. Apart from individual voices, such as
that of FDP leader
Mende, there has been little noticeable pressure exerted
on the Government for such bilateral talks. From the US
viewpoint, although there are many arguments pro and
con, on balance there is probably more to be said in
favor of than against a German effort to explore
whatever possibilities may be inherent in the Soviet
campaign to encourage bilateral discussions. We would
certainly not wish to drive the Germans into bilateral
talks against their own better judgment, but if they
came to us at some point willing to try their luck, we
would probably have more to gain than to lose by
encouraging them, as full and trusted partners, to play
a more active diplomatic role in our common cause. (A
paper discussing the pros and cons in greater detail is
available.)6 The
timing and method of initiating talks would, of course,
have to be carefully considered as well as their
relationship to other discussions which might be going
on with the Soviets. In any event, in view of the
present German attitude, this does not seem to be
something likely to develop in the immediate
future.
- 4.
- Conclusion. Unless there is some
unexpected break in the situation, the most desirable (though
admittedly not completely satisfactory) course of action would
seem to be:
- a.
- To let the Thompson-Gromyko exchanges in Moscow run their
course;
- b.
- To contemplate a meeting between the Secretary and
Gromyko in
Geneva in mid-March;
- c.
- To await what Dobrynin may have to say upon his
arrival here in Washington this month;
- d.
- To encourage the Germans, if the Thompson talks reach a
dead end and they seem inclined to take any initiative,
to try the possibilities of bilateral conversations with
the Soviets.