Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963, Volume VIII, National Security Policy

134. National Intelligence Estimate⁰

NIE 11-9-63

Washington, July 15, 1963.

A note on the cover sheet reads in part: “The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, AEC, and NSA.” The members of the U.S. Intelligence Board concurred except the Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, who abstained because the subject was outside his jurisdiction.

SOVIET CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS TO ORBIT NUCLEAR WEAPONS

The Problem

To examine Soviet capabilities and intentions to orbit nuclear weapons, probable Free World reactions to such a development, and Soviet reactions to various US responses.¹

Conclusions

A. We have thus far acquired no evidence that the USSR plans to orbit a nuclear-armed satellite in the near term, or that a program to establish an orbital bombardment capability is at present seriously contemplated by the Soviet leadership. However, the USSR does have the capability of orbiting one or possibly a few nuclear-armed satellites at any time, and at comparatively small cost. (Paras. 1-3, 15-16)

B. The limitations of existing hardware and facilities are such that the nuclear weapons which the Soviets could orbit during 1963-1964 would not add significantly to their military capabilities. Currently operational Soviet ICBMs would be capable of delivering comparable payloads with greater effectiveness. (Paras. 4-14)

C. A variety of political motives, such as the desire to restore the image of the USSR as the preeminent world military power, might nevertheless impel the Soviets to orbit a nuclear weapon in the near term for demonstrative purposes. Such a move would be more likely if the Soviets were already committed to the eventual establishment of an orbital bombardment force, or if convinced that the US was so committed. However, in seeking to impress world opinion, they would also encounter a variety of adverse reactions. Awe and alarm would be accompanied by resentment and dismay, and it would be charged in many quarters that the Soviets had extended the nuclear arms race into a new, more dangerous area. The Soviets would have to consider whether it would serve their interests to risk strong US countermoves, including an ambitious US military space program, and a general intensification of the cold war. (Paras. 17-23)

D. On balance, it appears to us that the disadvantages would outweigh the advantages, and we therefore believe that there is less than an even chance that the USSR will orbit a nuclear weapon in the near term. Nevertheless, the Soviets may weigh the balance differently than we do, and it remains possible that they will exercise their technical capability at any time. (Para. 24)

E. If the USSR should orbit a nuclear weapon for demonstrative purposes, it would almost certainly anticipate some form of US reaction. The Soviets would have to consider the possibility of a US attempt to destroy their satellite, and if the US threatened to do so, they would probably threaten retaliation against US satellites. They would be wary, however, of the risks involved in direct retaliation, including a possible “open war” on all satellites and the accompanying dangers of escalation. Official and popular opinion in most states allied with the US would expect and support US measures to counter the Soviet action. Opinion in the nonaligned states would favor some form of UN “solution.” The Soviets themselves might use the UN in an effort to deter US countermoves and to delay or forestall any US military program in space. (Paras. 25-30)

Prospects for 1965-1970

F. Based solely on considerations of cost and effectiveness as we now understand them, it would appear unlikely that the Soviets will during this decade deploy advanced orbital bombardment systems of military significance. We recognize, however, that the Soviets might reach different conclusions as to cost and effectiveness, or that other factors might be more weighty. Moreover, considering the pace of developments in the weapons field in general, it is extremely hazardous to estimate Soviet decisions for a period many years ahead. For these reasons, a firm estimate as to whether the Soviets will deploy an advanced orbital bombardment system within the 1965-1970 period cannot be made at this time. (Paras. 31-34, 45-49)

G. If the Soviets do proceed with an advanced orbital system, we believe that they are more likely to seek a small force of limited effectiveness than a very large and sophisticated one. The weapons of a small force could be maintained continually in orbit or could be held on standby on the ground for deployment as required. In any case, developmental testing of an orbital bombardment system should be observable to us at least a year or two prior to attainment of an accurate, reliable system. (Paras. 35-44, 50)

[Here follows the “Discussion” section. See the Supplement.]

0. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Intelligence File, National Intelligence Estimates. Secret; Restricted Data; Limited Distribution. A table of contents is not printed. For complete text, see the Supplement.
1. In this estimate, we concentrate primarily on multiorbit bombardment satellite systems, i.e., those designed to complete one or more revolutions of the earth prior to being detonated. We also have included, though at much abbreviated length, consideration of fractional orbit system, i.e., those designed to make less than one revolution of the earth before detonation. Although they do not follow a ballistic trajectory, fractional orbit systems are employed in a manner more closely related to that of an ICBM, and are therefore not germane to most aspects of the problem. [Footnote in the source text.]