230. Paper Prepared for the Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs (Hilsman)1
TALKING POINTS
1. Status of coup planning.
- a.
- Don saw Ambassador Lodge briefly at airport Monday2 morning Saigon time. Lodge confirmed bona fides of Conein. Don said coup group not yet ready. He said coup must be Vietnamese, and Lodge said we would not interfere or thwart.
- b.
- Don saw Conein Monday evening Saigon time.3 He said: Lodge would have plans before coup, but possibly only 4 hours in advance. He said nothing would happen for next 48 hours. Since he was told Lodge would leave Oct. 31 for US, there is reason to believe coup may be scheduled for Wednesday night or Thursday morning Saigon time (Wednesday morning or evening our time). Don’s request to Conein to remain available at home starting Wednesday evening seems to confirm this estimate.
Command post for coup will be Joint General Staff hq. near airport in Saigon.
Don said he would be in touch with Conein again in 48 hours.
2. Estimate of coup.
- a.
- Position of military leaders—see attachment.
- b.
- Position of military units—see attachment. Picture is not very clear as there are many gaps in our information. Lodge explains this on security grounds. Coup group would appear to at least have preponderance of forces.
- c.
- Civilian role—see attachment.
- d.
- Lodge’s estimate:4 Coup attempt by Generals is imminent; whether it fails or succeeds, U.S. will be held responsible; no positive action can prevent coup other than informing Diem and Nhu. There will be no time in any case to check with Washington re coup since Don indicates U.S. may be given only four hours’ notice.
3. Possible actions for U.S. to consider:
- a.
- Movement of U.S. military units5 in South China Seas and Okinawa into positions in which they were placed in August. Pro: to be in position to evacuate U.S. dependents in case of necessity. Con: will probably tip hand to GVN that something is up since GVN learned about our movements in August. Don asks that we avoid actions re American community that will tip off GVN. Our recommendation: ask for Lodge’s view.
- b.
-
Lodge will review his travel plans Wed. night Saigon time to see whether he can leave. Don has asked that he make no change in his plans because it might tip off GVN.6
Should we make military plane available to Lodge in order to make his travel plans more flexible? If so, it should go no further than the Philippines without further word from Washington.
- c.
- On coup planning we suggest Washington leave the matter in Lodge’s hands. Any action from here may gum up the matter.7
- Source: Kennedy Library, Hilsman Papers, Countries Series-Vietnam, 10/1/ 63-10/10/63 and undated. Top Secret. No drafting information is given on the source text. The paper was apparently prepared in anticipation of the meeting on the coup at 4 p m.; see Document 234. There are notes on the source text apparently in Hilsman’s handwriting indicating that Harriman, U. Alexis Johnson, Ball, Sullivan, and Hilsman met at 2:20 and 3:20, perhaps to refine these talking points.↩
- October 28. See Document 224.↩
- See Document 225.↩
- Document 226.↩
- A handwritten note at this point reads: “Ltd. stand by alert Sat? by White House. Forrestal did something, S/S Read says.”↩
- A handwritten note at this point reads: “Secy thinks 1) as seen from here Lodge should not follow schedule (plans as scheduled) 2) Ensure Harkins filled in.” A note in the margin reads: “Decide p.m.”↩
- Handwritten notes at the bottom of the page read: “Secy 3rd Intel assessmt-prospects, Intel people new assessmt,” and “What do we do if both sides ask support-e.g. helicopters?”↩
- Top Secret. Prepared by Mendenhall.↩
- Top Secret. Prepared by Mendenhall.↩
- Top Secret.↩
- A handwritten note next to Quat’s name reads: “Probable Prime Min.”↩
- Not found.↩