788.00/7–3054
No. 485
Memorandum by the Acting Special Assistant
to the Secretary of State for Intelligence (Howe) to the Secretary of
State
Subject:
- Intelligence Note: Political Prospects in Iran
Although within recent weeks the prospects have improved for the retention of Zahedi as Prime Minister following Parliamentary ratification of the oil agreement, there remains the possibility that he will be removed sometime thereafter as a result of growing pressure by other politicians for a chance to profit from office. The fall of the present Zahedi regime would not, however, necessarily lead to a basic change in the country’s existing balance of political power.
Political power in Iran is currently shared, as it was before Mosadeq’s ascent to power, by the Shah and the large landowning families. In turn, they control the civil government and defense forces, and could therefore select a successor to Zahedi. If the Shah was removed or assassinated, however, the Iranian Army, whose political outlook cannot be clearly determined and whose officers constitute by no means a united corps, would probably emerge as the dominant power in government.
The present power structure is being maintained by (1) the continuance of martial law particularly in Tehran, the Abadan area, [Page 1042] and along the railroads; (2) the enforcement of strict press censorship which muffles public criticism; (3) the active and continuous use of the security forces to control assemblages and demonstrations and to ferret out and imprison Tudeh and other subversive elements; (4) the provision of US emergency aid and political support; and (5) the continuing expectation that the current oil negotiations will result in a solution favorable to Iran.
In the longer run, however, this balance is likely to be broken by the persistence of fundamental political and social trends which neither the Shah nor the landowning groups will be able to alter. The new urban groups, for example—especially intellectuals, professional men, merchants, and workers—will probably grow in importance as the force of traditional social relationships and beliefs diminishes in the continuing encounter with Western modernism. With increasing intensity, these new groups will demand at least as great a share in political power as they had under Mosadeq.
A similar memorandum has been sent to the Under Secretary.