Italian-Austrian Desk files, lot 58 D 243, “Policy Debates—Winter 1953–1954”
No. 755
Memorandum by the Director of the Office
of Western European Affairs (Byington) to the Assistant Secretary of
State for European Affairs (Merchant)
- Subject: Commentary on the “Estimate of the Italian Situation” (as of November 1, 1953) Prepared by the American Ambassador in Rome.1
Sections I through VII of Ambassador Luce’s estimate outline the current drift toward Communism in Italy and the probability that unless vigorous political action is taken by the non-Communist opposition, within two years, Italy will be the first Western democratic nation, by legal democratic procedures, to get a Communist government.
It appears to me that Mrs. Luce’s analysis in these first paragraphs gives a very good portrayal of the real danger of Communism that exists in the present Italian political situation. I would agree completely that if normal democratic processes are followed there is in fact the danger that we shall find in Italy a government which will include Nenni or Togliatti, or both. There might well follow a Communist take-over from within. Whether this might or might not happen within two years is open to doubt.
I do not believe, however, there is sufficient emphasis on the fact that, as Mrs. Luce points out, the maximum Communist potentiality [Page 1638] in the polls may be somewhere in the neighborhood of 41 per cent. This leaves some 59 per cent of Italians on the other side of the fence. These non-Communist Italians, while unable at present to get together successfully on a political program, are nevertheless strongly, and in many cases bitterly, anti-Communist. As the Communist danger becomes more apparent it is my opinion that the opposition of this 59 per cent will become stronger and will tend to coalesce in favor of a more authoritative form of government which can deal drastically with Communist tactics in a way that is beyond the power of the present form of government in Italy limited to Italian democratic processes. The 59 per cent non-Communists of Italy include, except for the small body of trained leaders among the Communists, the overwhelming mass of better educated and more intelligent and energetic Italians. This non-Communist group includes practically all of the police and practically all of the Italian armed forces. It includes the vast majority of highly skilled workers and the bourgeoisie as well as most of the professional classes. Although in numbers the balance is fairly even, in actual strength the non-Communists have an overwhelming advantage.
I very much doubt whether these groups will wait for a Communist victory at the polls or if there should be a Communist victory at the polls will remain passive until they are ground down under the Communist totalitarian machine. The prospect of a Rightist dictatorship as the only alternative to Communism would, in my opinion, meet with their preference. I would envisage therefore rather than Communism more likelihood of a Rightist authoritarian regime emerging from a chaotic Italian situation. In fact, non-Communist Italians will become ripe for such a development as the danger of Communist control becomes more evident.
I certainly agree with Mrs. Luce’s estimate that successful reconstruction and reorganization of the center parties and their programs is the only development in Italy compatible with “both U.S. political ideology and U.S. foreign policies”. I also agree with Mrs. Luce’s estimate that … the center parties’ chances are not much more than even.
In paragraph VIII Mrs. Luce outlines methods of assisting the center parties. These are sound and would unquestionably be of decisive influence if they could all be used. They depend, however, to a certain extent on many factors outside U.S. control. How quickly we can achieve US–UK agreement on implementation (partial or complete) of the October 8 decision on Trieste is not a matter that depends only on us. Likewise the problem of over-population, stabilization of world currency and the opening of U.S. and other markets to Italian trade depend on many developments not under the control of the Administration. I would agree that we should support [Page 1639] all of these measures, but it would, in my opinion, be unrealistic to count on success in all these fields. Therefore we must necessarily consider now what we can do immediately to encourage the democratic elements in Italy to stand up for themselves.
As regards current issues the Ambassador certainly is correct in her conclusion that failure to implement either partially or completely the October 8 decision will result in the fall of the present Pella Government. We must work our way through this matter successfully or face serious consequences not only in Italy, but to our entire European policy.
. . . . . . .
- Ambassador Luce’s paper was an enclosure to her letter to President Eisenhower, Document 753.↩