740.5/12–753
Memorandum by the Director of the Office of Western European Affairs (Jones) to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs (Bonbright)1
Subject:
- Approach to French on EDC Alternatives
We have studied carefully papers prepared in S/P, RA, and GER on the subject of EDC alternatives.2 We agree with the conclusion reached in RA’s paper of November 4 that there will probably not be outright rejection of the EDC, and that accordingly the basic premise of the S/P paper probably does not represent the situation we will actually face. On the contrary it seems that in France the practical alternatives are further delay, ostensibly based on non-fulfillment of France’s condition, or ratification about March.
If the results of the presidential elections (if, for example, Laniel is elected) and the formation of a new cabinet (if, for example, Pinay becomes Prime Minister with Bidault or Schuman as Foreign Minister) indicate that France will push ahead on EDC our problem is probably not so critical. On the other hand, if Auriol should be reelected President and/or a left-centre cabinet come into existence, further delays seem inevitable. In this event, even if an apparently [Page 861] satisfactory Saar settlement were reached, and the British association and U.S. assurances problem settled along the lines the Socialists have wanted, it is perfectly obvious that other conditions can easily be created if any of several major political groups so desire. A long-drawn out four-power conference would present another possibility for delays in France, and indeed might further put off ratification, even given the best will in the world of the French Government.
Therefore, it seems clear we may easily be faced with a situation where we can no longer permit more or less indefinite delay to continue. At that point we will have to consider our course of action with the French. There is very little chance of forcing a vote in the Assembly, and such a vote would probably be negative unless the French conditions had been met, new ones could easily be discovered, giving the Government a chance not to push to a vote on the grounds that it would be disastrous unless condition “X” had been satisfied.
At about this time, obviously we will be considering very seriously ourselves the alternative possibilities to EDC, and it occurs to us that perhaps it would be advisable in the fairly near future to disclose some of these alternatives to the French. Our reason for so doing would of course be the impossibility of holding the line further in the United States. Obviously we should consider what alternatives we presented very carefully. For example, it seems to us that direct German membership in NATO would not be satisfactory as an alternative to present to the French because it would be time-consuming, requiring the Parlimentary action of fourteen countries, (we would present the problem to the French as being urgent) and presumably could be vetoed by France.
Any alternative which we presented should be susceptible of implementation, to at least some degree, rapidly and without falling under a French veto. Alternatives as little distasteful as possible to France should also be sought, but one of the purposes of the exercise would be to demonstrate practically and on a case basis that EDC itself is more palatable to France than any alternatives we can envisage. Of the possibilities thus far presented, something along the lines of alternative “D” in the RA paper would be most desirable (see attachment). Obviously this is not a happy solution from the French viewpoint (nor from the German either probably). However, it does have certain advantages and meets the criteria of being susceptible of implementation without French concurrence (UK concurrence is an unknown quantity too), and would be speedy. Above all, it has the advantage of not killing off the EDC. It could be presented to the French as an indication of our thinking of EDC alternatives, with the stipulation that it was not intended to supersede EDC but merely to enable us to get on with some of the essentials of European Army plan while awaiting French Assembly action, the absence of which we so regretted.
[Page 862]Such an approach to the French should of course await the Presidential elections, and at least the investiture of a new Prime Minister. However, if at that time there are strong indications of considerable further delays in scheduling the definitive EDC debate, and if a Saar settlement still seems in the rather hazy future, it is believed that discussion of EDC alternatives with the French must be undertaken if only to demonstrate the relative painlessness of EDC as compared with other lines we might take. The basis for our talking with the French along these lines would be that neither Congress nor the Administration could continue on dead centre on this issue, and we now had reached the point where speedy progress towards obtaining a German contribution was a necessity.