893.00/11–2549: Telegram
The Chargé in China (Strong) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 26—2:34 p. m.]
Cantel 1304. In conversation with President Li Tsung-jen November 23 we asked him for views on future of Chinese Government in light of deterioration in southwest and departures of some government personnel for Taiwan.
Admitting serious split between those wishing capital in Taipei and those preferring continent, Li said it was his intention eventually establish government Nanning; he would never agree to government on Taiwan. Generalissimo, Li maintained, would not reassume Presidency but only wished continue his control behind scenes. Constitutionally, therefore, Li claims right approve appointments and site of government.
Prior to evacuation from west China, Li declared government would retreat to Chengtu and later probably Hsichang (Sikang province) which would provide several weeks’ grace before essential establish it Nanning. That period he would use regain health; already numbers of his supporters are moving overland to Nanning and by time of [Page 609] evacuation from Szechuan or Sikang he will have enough “liberals” and independents to form government; Chu Chang-wei has been instructed remain with government to maintain contacts; united front among Yu Han-mou, Hsueh Yueh, Chen Chi-tang, Lu Han and Li group is practically accomplished; their hope is to hold portions Yunnan, Kweichow, Kwangsi, Kwangtung and Hainan.
How optimistic Li really is over achieving his goal we cannot gauge. Certain serious questions may be raised.
- First, is whether Li can retain loyalty and services of competent persons during an extended absence; with uncertainty whether he is really coming back or not. Chinese do not seem noted for trust in leaders under such circumstances. Pai Chung-hsi may be able give appropriate assurances.
- Second, combination involving people like Lu Han (if he stays in it), Yu Han-mou and Hsueh Yueh is not necessarily attractive to “liberals”.
- Third, Li still needs more [money?] badly and will need more if he is to have government at Nanning. Li criticized Generalissimo for recently moving 700,000 taels of gold from Kweiyang, Chungking and Chengtu to Taiwan, feeling this treasure should have been left in mainland, presumably at Nanning. Generalissimo thus has same hold on Li that he always has had and Li has no better means of breaking away than before.
- Fourth, Li may be trying attract support by claiming he is only one qualified for US aid and that he may get it if he shows he is protecting Indochina border. Pai’s strategy seems to be to keep back to that border and to a seaport.
- Fifth, in back of his mind is doubtless intention move to Hainan as last resort, thus he too may become exponent of island government based Taiwan.
We find it hard to believe that current impasse can be broken in favor of Li. Generalissimo holds far better cards and knows how to play them. That any number of competent men will, under the circumstances, choose to support Li in a going cause on mainland seems doubtful.
Generalissimo may feel some necessity for bolstering Li if he feels it politically unwise to resume Presidency in view of unfavorable US attitude toward him and fact he would be heading a losing cause. If Generalissimo does not resume office, then he needs Li to fulfill certain constitutional functions. We cannot believe that this late date Generalissimo will give Li what latter wants and needs. The time for doing so was months ago, not now.
We are [un]certain of extent of hold Li has on Generalissimo that makes his return to Chungking so necessary. Face important, constitutional procedures are desirable, but would scarcely seem overwhelming; a façade of unity is perhaps important to Generalissimo but at this stage not to anyone else; Pai Chung-hsi’s forces are only ones on [Page 610] mainland with toy ability and coherence, but they are facing overwhelming odds, and seem heretofore to have been regarded by Generalissimo as rivals; Generalissimo has never shown any interest in type of people supporting Li.
We can only conclude that Generalissimo wants someone else to continue “holding the bag” for him and to take public responsibility for loss of mainland.
Sent Department Cantel 1304, repeated Taipei 228, Shanghai 567, Hong Kong by hand.