Foreign Relations of the United States, 1949, Eastern Europe; The Soviet Union, Volume V

861.2423/9–2949: Telegram

The Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Kirk) to the Secretary of State

top secret

Moscow, September 29, 1949—6 p. m.

2449. Embassy offers following tentative initial comments probable effects Soviet policy recent development atomic situation.

1. Feel no reason alter basic Embassy estimate Soviet intentions (Embdesp 202, April 6, 1949¹) even if Soviets have now produced their first satisfactory bomb. While sudden unanticipated Soviet progress, beyond their expectations, in atomic field might possibly advance date on which they would be prepared accept or initiate hostilities, such date would by no means be “in the near future.”

2. However, foreign public and press reaction announcement Soviet atomic explosion together with treatment by Soviet press justifies speculation that in field current Soviet foreign tactical policy they will consider their hand strengthened and will tend toward increased firmness, less disposition to “concessions” and endeavor to exploit fears of popular masses everywhere. Probably also will anticipate their “peace” offensive will fall on more fertile soil.

3. As respects atomic energy control, present situation conducive Soviet insistence on acceptance their “proposal” and statements such as that attributed Time suggesting outlook for international control may have been improved seem likely mislead Western public opinion.

4. Re actual status Soviet achievement in atomic field, Soviet press reaction to announcement gives no basis conclusion but suggests that specific claim atomic weapon mastered in 1947 open to serious question. Reference in Tass communiqué to construction hydro stations, mines, etc., unrealistic in insinuating atomic energy used connection such projects or that US announcement mistakenly based on explosion not atomic nature.

5. In essence Embassy feels Soviets will concentrate exploitation situation on propaganda and psychological warfare angles hoping inter alia stampede West into acceptance Soviet “proposal” for atomic energy control and at same time undermine Western unity painstakingly achieved recent years. Thus while pressing “peace” offensive Soviets will accompany such offensive in effect by saber rattling and by atomic propaganda undertones designed weaken non-Communist world and strengthen allegiance their satellite areas.

6. Service attachés concur foregoing.

Please pass Defense.²

Kirk

1. Ante, p. 603.
2. As requested, this telegram was relayed to the Department of Defense at 5 p. m., on September 29. A summary of it was also sent to the Embassies in the United Kingdom, France, and Yugoslavia in a circular telegram on September 30 at 5 a. m.