861.00/9–1749: Airgram
The Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Kirk) to the Secretary of State
A–956. A public lecture on “The Further Aggravation of the General Crisis of Capitalism after the Second World War” was given by L. A. Leontiev, Corresponding Member of the Academy of Sciences, on September 6 in the Big Lecture Hall under the auspices of the All-Union Society for the Diffusion of Political and Scientific Knowledge. Since the lecture followed predictable lines for the most part, only highlights are summarized below.
Leontiev indicated that the doctrine of the General Crisis of Capitalism, given classic formulation by Stalin in his report to the 16th Party Congress, is a very fundamental article of Leninist faith: most “deserters from Socialism” have started their downward path by denying this doctrine—the former Varga group, for example. It was this doctrine which enabled Stalin in the mid–1920’s to hold that the temporary stabilization of capitalism at that time could not be lasting. Among the specific ways in which the General Crisis, beginning with World War I and the October Revolution, affected Capitalism are: loss of exploitable areas, and “deformation of the business cycle” whereby economic crises become much worse and intervening periods hardly rise above stagnation level—the British and French economies, for example, “marked time” between the wars.
Leontiev then described how World War II led to further sharpening of the General Crisis by effecting both a relative and an absolute increase of Socialist, decrease of Capitalist strength. Soviet production, e.g., is 40% above 1940, whereas Capitalist production in 1947 was no larger than in the “crisis years” of 1937–1948, and has declined since.* Soviet speakers before world forums gain a “mighty resonance” in the form of world public opinion which forces the imperialists to make concessions. Soviet victory in the war demonstrated the superiority of Socialist over Capitalist systems. The formation of People’s Democracies—due to the decisive support of the USSR, since local rulers were supported by international capitalism—means that the USSR is now supported not only by other peoples but by other governments. The USA is in a weaker position because it now has to occupy the front lines of imperialism, having lost the “shock brigades” of Germany and Japan. The preponderance of [Page 656] US economic strength means increasing pressure to grow at the expense of the older Capitalist economies, hence a responding increase of “centrifugal forces” in the Western Bloc, which is consequently doomed to break up. This process will be accelerated as the economic crisis gets worse. The shrinking of the colonial system has continued: the loss of China alone is a major blow to the USA comparable to the loss of Japan and Germany. The heavy waves of strikes signify the sharpening of class “contradictions”: workers and peasants are less docile after the heavy sacrifices imposed on them by the war. Against the above as background, the warlike aggressiveness of the imperialists indicates that they realize time is working against them.
The question period brought out a few additional points: The General Crisis must be distinguished from economic crises; the latter occur periodically within the former. Capitalist history between the world wars was marked by three stages: the revolutionary period, the Capitalist stabilization in the mid-twenties, and a renewed trend toward wars and revolutions beginning in 1929. After the interruption of World War II, the Capitalist countries have returned to the trend begun in 1929, while the USSR has resumed its pre-war march of progress. Weakening of the Capitalist countries as the General Crisis advances may lead to a relaxation of trade discriminations against Eastern Europe. Finland did not become a People’s Democracy because it was a “very special case”. Yugoslavia fell from grace as a People’s Democracy because a small gang seized power much in the way Hitler’s gang did in Germany—but Tito’s punishment will come much sooner than did Hitler’s.
- Leontiev later admitted that the US had expanded its production in the earlier years of the war, but said this was not surprising since the other Capitalist countries were being weakened by the war. Anyway US production had declined since 1943, and the economic crisis had begun toward the end of 1948. Of our rising unemployment, 3 million were due to our refusal to trade with Eastern Europe. [Footnote in the source text.]↩