893.00/11–1348: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State58a
[Received November 13—9:33 a.m.]
2206. Principal military forces remaining to Government are presently or shortly will be engaged between Nanking and Hsuchow. There is no significant Government force in terms of regular troops to south of Yangtze. It appears probable that Communists will succeed in destroying Government forces north of river within 10 days to 2 weeks. When this occurs, Government cannot long defend Nanking–Shanghai area, and will either disintegrate or be forced to flee to some other point in China. Generalissimo still intends fight as long as possible. While there is growing opposition this course in Government circles, Generalissimo still controls army and his policy will probably prevail.
Given Generalissimo’s determination continue war, unless he should be removed by coup, upon which we should not count, we do not anticipate orderly transfer power from present to successor government. We believe sporadic and largely unorganized resistance to Communists will persist in South and Central China for some time, with high incidence civil unrest and breakdown law and order. We also believe that these conditions will constitute definite hazard to well-being foreign nationals resident all parts of country.
As Dept is aware, JUSMAG has called in its outlying teams and intends evacuate male personnel from points where hostilities threaten, [Page 885] including Nanking and Shanghai. Evacuation American and other foreign nationals requires use JUSMAG facilities, particularly for air movement. Normal means transportation within China are already overburdened and are virtually unavailable to unofficial travellers.
Due to rapid deterioration in Government position and prospective nonavailability evacuation facilities which we had planned to use in emergency conditions, believe that time has come to institute emergency evacuation procedures for practically all of China, since it will probably not be possible provide these or any other evacuation facilities as acute and critical emergencies develop in various localities. Accordingly, we are instructing ComNavWesPac, unless Dept instructs to contrary, to set “emergency condition D”, as provided in ComNavWesPac operation plan No. 103,59 as of 0800 hours local time, Tuesday, November 16. This condition will apply to Peiping, Tientsin, Nanking, Shanghai, Hankow, Chungking, Kunming and Canton consular districts only, and will embrace only those protective features provided by the plan as may be necessary in the course of carrying out the evacuation of non-official Americans and other foreign nationals. Consular and Embassy personnel will, of course, remain at their posts except as evacuation of dependents and female employees is authorized. We are advising ComNavWesPac that the protective features included under “condition D” are not needed at present and that only the transportation facilities included therein are presently wanted. We are also informing him of our opinion that the operation should be conducted with as little publicity as possible in order that it not occasion further loss public confidence in Government.