867N.01/10–2948: Telegram
The Ambassador in the United Kingdom (Douglas) to the Acting Secretary of State
top secret
London, October
29, 1948—7 p. m.
4684. For Lovett’s eyes only. Embassy’s 2267, May 25.
- 1.
- Five months have elapsed since I met May 25 with Attlee, Bevin and representatives of British chiefs of staff including Lieutenant General Templer, Vice-Chief Imperial General Staff. I considered it wise to inquire whether the British assessment the basic factors of ME defense had in any way altered since that time. On October 28 General Templer called at Foreign Office request to bring me up to date.
- 2.
- It is apparent from what Templer had to say that the IGS, which has now had practical experience of getting along without a base in Palestine and which is watching with alarm the disintegration of UK-Arab relations as a result of UK observance of arms embargo, now places even greater emphasis than before on importance of holding the Middle East for offensive purposes in the event of war with USSR. Templer said that the idea held some months ago that ME oil is peacetime oil only has now been abandoned in favor of defending all ME oil resources and at minimum the oil resources and refineries of western Persian Gulf. (Note: Department will have learned from Navy Admiral Conolly’s1 concurring views in this connection.)
- 3.
- According Templer the USSR, quite apart from its obvious desire to possess ME oil, is expected to embark on a defensive offensive in the Middle East in the event of war because if ME is in control of US and UK, US heavy bombers can strike deep into the Caucasus—“the achilles heel of the USSR.” ME is of special concern to USSR because it is only area in which the USSR thanks to steadfastness of US–UK bolstered Turkey and Iran, has not been able to set up a defense zone beyond its frontier. Thus in time of war, USSR is expected to make from outset a strong effort to deny ME to US and UK [Page 1531] as base of operations. In time of peace, however, USSR must employ its foreign policy and secret agents to accomplish the same purposes: i.e. denial to US and UK use of ME. Arab-Jewish hatred and inter-Arab state hatred, judiciously stimulated by the USSR openly and secretly, has gone far and will go further to destroy the possibility of US–UK plans for ME defense making headway.
- 4.
- Before Palestine question became active following end World War II ME was “virtually clean” of Soviet influence. Now, according Templer, by carefully playing Palestine issue, the USSR has managed to transfer Palestine into the spearhead of its attempt to disrupt ME and make it untenable for US–UK defense purposes.
- 5.
- Following may be cited as evidence of Soviet interest and
activities in ME:
- (a)
- Establishment large Soviet mission Tel Aviv to work with other even larger Soviet missions ME, notably in Lebanon. It is expected that Communist headquarters will shift eventually from Beirut to Tel Aviv.
- (b)
- Offer to supply troops for international regime Jerusalem.
- (c)
- Soviet assistance to thousands of Jews from Soviet satellite states to come to Palestine (this move was extremely successful in embarrassing the UK and was factor in British decision to leave Palestine).
- (d)
- Recent union of Jewish and Arab Communist parties in Palestine which may be useful fifth column if and when Palestine becomes battle ground in close defense of Egypt. It is significant that only effective Arab-Jewish cooperation is through Communists and this first impact of Israel on Arab political thinking may be gauge of future Israeli influence particularly if Soviet hope of capturing PGI from below is realized. Forthcoming Israeli elections in Israel will be good index of strength Communists and leftists are believed to possess in Israel.
- (e)
- Soviet connivance in supplying arms and airplanes to Israel through Czechoslovakia (Embassy’s 4660, October 28 and 4645 October 272) thus circumventing UN arms embargo in favor of Israel and building up Arab hostility against US because it has respected UN embargo. This action has been extremely successful because while it appears to represent only central European assistance to Israel, actually its real effect has been to poison Arab-British relations (Embassy is submitting top secret despatch elaborating upon this point).
- (f)
- Continuing Soviet support in UN for November 29, 1947 resolution with its hour-glass frontiers. Latter, if applied, would go far to perpetuate Arab-Jewish friction.
- (g)
- Covert support for Mufti and through him for Arab irregulars. There is no absolute proof of this although presumption is strong. Mufti has at his disposal suspiciously large funds and is well-known for his propensity to take money from any source. His irresponsible followers, whether they know it or not, are most effective agents for Soviet goal of discord.
- (h)
- USSR and US standing together on November 29 resolution was instance US-Soviet cooperation which emphasized divergence [Page 1532] US–UK thinking re Palestine. A similar step greatly to Soviet advantage was full Soviet recognition PGI in wake US provisional recognition.
- (i)
- Palestine conflict has resulted in ruinously high war expenditure by Israel and Arab states and in latter’s relatively large expenditure on 350,000 Arab refugees. This financial waste has already set back by years plans for ME economic and social development which might go far to immunize ME against communism.
- (j)
- Favorable climate for revolution will be created among populations of Arab spates by disappointment and resentment at failure Arab Governments and armies to crush Jews in Palestine. Arab press has presented such false picture Arab successes that there is hint this may be in part Soviet inspired.
- (k)
- Essential Soviet design of disruption is fostered by increasing difficulties of Jewish communities in ME particularly in Egypt and Iraq. Short range, looting and killing in these would affect public order in Arab states; longer range, disappearance Jewish merchants—economic mainsprings in many Arab states—would cripple national economies.
- (l)
- Even if present Arab Governments survive their disillusion with West (i.e. US and UK), vapid UN handling Palestine problem may cause them to look for more purposeful world power and decide this is USSR.
- (m)
- Palestine turmoil has stopped Haifa oil dock and refinery to cost ERP and to possible benefit Rumania with which PGI is discussing oil supplies.
- (n)
- Jewish thrust into Negev has for first time in history split Arab world; there is now no practicable land communication between Egypt and other Arab states—a feat never achieved even by Crusaders. If Arab world is to be bulwark against communism there must be some corporate sense between state as well as free communications.
- 6.
- Foregoing received from Templer and supplemented by Foreign Office
and controlled source. Some of the evidence cited is conclusive and
part of it rests upon intelligent surmise, the latter are largely
corollaries of Palestine conflict, perhaps uncalculated by the USSR,
but nonetheless effective in furthering the ends of the latter.
However, taking the good and the doubtful points together the
picture which emerges is clear. This picture caused me to telegraph
(Paragraph 8, Embassy’s 4621, October 26) as follows:
“Palestine situation is probably as dangerous to our national interests as is Berlin. The danger of the latter has been played up in the headlines. The danger (not the situation) of the former has been ignored in the headlines. I have sometimes thought that this concealment of the danger in Palestine has permitted the Soviet to play her game in the Middle East without attracting attention.”
- 7.
- You may wish to show this and my telegram of October 263 to Dulles and Vandenberg.4
Sent Department 4684, repeated Paris 817 GADel for the Secretary (eyes only).
Douglas