895.01/8–2847: Telegram
The Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Smith) to the Secretary of State
2728. Deptel 1646, August 26. Note to Foreign Office on Korea was delivered tonight since it is understood it was being transmitted to UK and China.
Must point out, however, that while I think it unlikely Soviet Govt will accept our proposal, Kremlin may be cleverer than we think. Therefore we should be prepared for possibility of agreement by USSR to form such a coalition govt and should have no illusions as to ultimate result of such acceptance. Experience in other areas and evidence of consistency of Soviet methods convinces me that any provisional govt set up in a united Korea according to Dept’s plan would eventually inevitably be Communist-dominated. Only question is [Page 776] length of time it would take for militant, disciplined, highly organized minority to secure power. Activities of disunited right wing and non-Communist groups in Southern Korea might delay this domination temporarily but could hardly alter final result.
In such case, US will face Soviet control of a vital strategic area of Far East. I believe strategic importance of Korea to Soviet Union is such that Kremlin would not relinquish control except under most drastic circumstances. Should USSR agree participate Four Power conversations and accept general plan for establishment of coalition govt this may be taken as clear indication of their confidence in achieving control of Korea. However, as previously stated, I consider this agreement unlikely.