841.2368/9–547
The Secretary of War (Royall) and the Secretary of the Navy (Forrestal) to the Secretary of State
Dear Mr. Secretary: In accordance with the request contained in letter from Acting Secretary of State of 27 August 1947, the Joint Chiefs of Staff have studied the military implications of the withdrawal [Page 328] of British troops from Greece by 31 October 1947 and from Italy by 31 December 1947. Their views are stated in the following paragraphs.
British troops in Greece are not able, and are not intended, to withstand armed attack in force. Their presence is regarded as symbolical of the determination of Great Britain and of the Western Democracies to assure the continued independence of the Greek State. For this reason, they are a strong deterrent to attack in force against Greece and have a marked influence on the internal Greek situation and a substantial effect on the morale of the Greek population.
Given any favorable opportunity, such as the withdrawal of British troops from Greece, there is grave danger that the Greek Guerrilla leaders will issue a call for assistance in repelling attacks by the Greek National Army on the army of the recently proclaimed “Free State of Northern Greece.” The comparatively weak Greek National Army could not withstand the guerrilla forces if the latter were augmented by sizeable forces from outside Greece. Thus, there would be grave danger of all Greece coming under communist control. The drastically adverse effect of such a contingency on the military position of the United States and the other Western Democracies is certain. Forces friendly to, if not under the domination of, the USSR would be on the Mediterranean and in a position to interdict shipping through that sea route. Turkey would be outflanked to the west, north and east. Continued alignment of that country with the Western Democracies would be problematical in view of the increased difficulty of their giving assistance to Turkey in the event of war. The possibility of retaining Italy as a nation friendly to the Western Democracies would be greatly lessened, as would be any possibility of retaining Iran as a nation oriented toward the Western Democracies. Access by the United States and Great Britain to the petroleum products of the Middle East, which are essential to their economic welfare and military potential, would be jeopardized.
Further, the position of the Western Democracies as evidenced by the maintenance of British combat troops in Greece, the firm stand of the United States before the United Nations, and the establishment of a United States aid program have clearly indicated to the world a determination to prevent Greece from falling into the Soviet orbit. In the face of these evident policies, failure in Greece would lead to a dangerous weakening of resistance to communism in the non-Soviet world.
In CCS 972,1 copy of which is enclosed, the British Chiefs of Staff have made certain recommendations to the United States Chiefs of [Page 329] Staff as to the timing of withdrawal of British forces from Greece and as to increases in the Greek armed forces necessary to compensate for this withdrawal. However, the Joint Chiefs of Staff are of the opinion that, in the face of British withdrawal, implementation of these recommendations would be inadequate to ‘assure the independence of Greece. Further, such action would require funds not now available for military assistance to the Greek armed forces. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have therefore not concurred in these proposals as a solution to the present problem. A copy of their memorandum to the British Chiefs of Staff is enclosed for your information.2
In conclusion, the Joint Chiefs of Staff are seriously concerned regarding the military implications of the British decision to withdraw their troops from Greece. Such a withdrawal would surely result in a marked deterioration of our over-all strategic position in the Mediterranean and might well provoke a critical situation in Greece itself. There appears to be no course of action open to the United States which would fully offset the adverse effects of this move.
At present, the United States and Great Britain stand together in Greece on a common front against communist aggression. Should the British now firmly determine to withdraw from this position, the mere act of withdrawal would create a distinct period of disruption and heightened crisis.
Sincerely yours,
Forrestal