851.00/5–746: Telegram
The Ambassador in France (Caffery) to the Secretary of State
[Received 11:50 p.m.]
2213. In analyzing the reasons for the defeat of the Constitution and the immediate reaction of the French to it, most observers agree that the most important single factor was probably the defection [Page 448] of a considerable part of the Socialist vote. While it is true that most of these were not Socialist militants or party members, the Socialist Party leadership had not calculated on such serious desertions by Leftist voters. Of almost equal importance was the fact that abstentions were fewer than had been anticipated (a fraction less than 20 percent). In this connection, while some people voted as a protest against the present Government’s incapacity and ineffectiveness, it is also apparent that the Communists in the past month overplayed their hand. Their intransigence and categoric refusal to consider several Constitutional compromises proposed by Gouin and accepted by the MRP; the exaggerated Communist propaganda campaign which classified all persons who opposed their Constitutional proposals as “Fascists, Vichyites and reactionaries”, and a Communist announcement a week ago that Thorez would be the next Prime Minister tended to arouse many apathetic and indifferent Frenchmen to the danger and they voted instead of abstaining. In their minds the referendum was a plebiscite for or against Communism, rather than a Constitutional issue.
With the foregoing in mind, the reaction of the French people to the defeat of the Constitution is both interesting and important. Leaders of all political parties except the Communists and Socialists are jubilant and feel that for the first time since liberation they have checked the steady Communist march to power and have prevented the possibility of a Communist-dominated Thorez Government after June 2nd. The reaction of the Left-Center, Moderate and Conservative rank and file is even more important.
As I have reported, a great majority of Frenchmen are opposed to Communism. Nonetheless there has been dangerous political lassitude and apathy. The majority of the people are psychologically and physically tired and their thoughts and efforts are directed to solving the everyday problem of living rather than to politics. Furthermore, the way the Communist-dominated majority in the Constituent Assembly jammed through the Constitution and other legislation during the past 6 months accentuated this political apathy and led them to fear and believe that Communism in France was inevitable; that there was nothing they could do to prevent it; and that therefore they might as well abstain from voting or ride along with the Communist current rather than oppose it so that they would not compromise their future when the Communists should have taken over. The rejection of the Constitution acted like a shot in the arm for such persons. For the first time in months they saw the Communists checked. Apathy and despair were replaced—if only temporarily—by real hope that all was not lost and that Communism could be defeated in [Page 449] France if they went to the polls and discharged their civic obligations. (The referendum results and this new spirit is the most encouraging sign I have seen in many months, and if it can be maintained until the June elections and after should be an important factor in hindering the Communists in their efforts to take over the country.)
The reaction of the two parties which supported the Constitution is also of interest. A number of important Socialist leaders (particularly those who have consistently opposed the Communists) are secretly delighted with the outcome of the referendum although they cannot say so publicly. They naturally regret that it will adversely affect Socialist chances in June but even Daniel Mayer, who is very much on the spot, fears that his party will lose heavily and that his personal position as Secretary-General has been jeopardized by the rejection of the Constitution, said to me last evening that despite this “There is at least one bright spot—the possibility of a Thorez government after June 2 has certainly been postponed until the following elections”. Blum’s son and daughter-in-law, who occupy important posts in the party and who are close to Gouin, both expressed real gratification at the negative vote and hope—perhaps too optimistically—that the Socialist Party will not suffer too much in the coming elections.
For the Communists, however, the rejection of the Constitution is a major setback (my 2198, May 7). It is believed that they will take no steps calculated seriously to alarm the electorate nor will they resort to any illegal attempt to seize power but on the contrary will accept their defeat on the Constitution with at least outward “good grace”; will call upon “all republican elements” to support their party in the coming elections; and will do their best through the CGT and other Communist-controlled organizations to increase substantially their representation in the next Assembly at the expense of the Socialists so that they will emerge the largest and strongest single party.