Office of the Historian

391. Letter From the Secretary of State’s Special Assistant for Research and Intelligence (Armstrong) to Director of Central Intelligence Hillenkoetter0

Washington, July 29, 1949.

Dear Admiral Hillenkoetter: Our representative on the Joint Ad Hoc Committee which prepared ORE 46–49, “The Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1949,” has advised me of the desirability of continuing operation of this committee in such a way as to form a pool for interdepartmental consideration of Soviet intentions for war. Probably all the intelligence organizations find frequent need for means by which, at any time, they may produce comprehensive, factual data as a basis of estimates on this subject. Also, it seems to me, that a committee engaged in studying Soviet intentions would be of great aid in handling most of the “crisis type” requests that are likely to arise.

We have, of course, just discussed and agreed to the establishment of a Jigsaw Committee to coordinate the intelligence approach to problems of world communism. That Committee, however, although its work will contribute in part to the analysis of Soviet intentions, has a distinctive responsibility of its own which takes in many other matters such as the development of Communist theory and Communist techniques, and the growth of Communist activity of all sorts in local situations throughout the world. I have in mind rather the need for continuing, current analysis closely applied to indications of the likelihood of Soviet military action, analysis which will integrate, for instance, OB information from all three Services with political and economic indications.

I would like to suggest therefore that you consider establishing under CIA a permanent interdepartmental committee (which might be called the Watch Committee) to pool information on Soviet intentions for war. I attach a draft proposal which sets forth in detail a possible manner of operation and which might, together with this letter, form an item for discussion at the IAC.

Sincerely yours,

W. Park Armstrong, Jr.
[Page 992]

Enclosure1

PROPOSED IAC AGREEMENT

SUBJECT

  • Permanent Committee on USSR Intentions
1.
A permanent committee (hereinafter referred to as the Watch Committee) is hereby established to coordinate intelligence information on the short and long range warlike intentions of the USSR and to produce periodic intelligence estimates on this subject as it affects national security. The Watch Committee will work in accordance with the established NSCID and DCI directives.
2.
The Watch Committee shall act under the chairmanship of CIA and shall comprise:
  • Chairman—CIA
  • Vice Chairman—State
  • Member—Army
  • Member—Navy
  • Member—Air Force
  • Member—CIA/OSO
  • Ad hoc members as needed may be determined by the regular members.
  • Secretariat—CIA
3.
The Watch Committee will, in the first instance, establish methods of procedure.
4.
The Committee will meet at regular intervals, adjusting the frequency of its meetings from time to time in relation to the need for maintenance and revision of its work.
5.
The Committee will be responsible for:
a.
On a long range basis
(1)
Bringing up to date in a comprehensive basic estimate existing papers which relate to USSR intentions for war
(2)
Developing basic EEI for such estimates
(3)
Producing at appropriate intervals or upon request revisions of the comprehensive estimate
b.
On a short range basis
(1)
Arranging periodic exchange amongst its members of items of information pertinent to the EEI
(2)
Producing from each such exchange an interim estimate which will indicate the bearing of available current information on the most recent basic comprehensive estimate.
  1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency Records, Job 80–01731R, Box 43, Folder 7. Top Secret. A further exchange of letters and memoranda is ibid.↩
  2. Secret.↩