793.94/16970: Telegram
The Counselor of Embassy in China (Butrick) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 5—3:17 a.m.]
334. The following is a summary of a memorandum of remarks to Leighton Stuart by one of his Chinese friends whose opinions on Japanese politics he has learned to respect. Stuart says that this Chinese is in contact with many Japanese leaders and is popularly regarded as a traitor but Stuart feels that he is honestly keeping [seeking] the welfare of both Chinese and Japanese.
(Begin summary): All Japan wishes to end the China affair and from the Japanese point of view the Tojo Cabinet, like the Konoye Cabinet, is organized for peace rather than war. While the Konoye Cabinet was primarily navy, the Tojo Cabinet is primarily army; thus the army which started the China conflict is given a chance to end it. Japan is opportunist and will move either north or south depending on European developments. Only a conviction of real danger of a clash with the United States will stop her. The Tojo Cabinet will continue diplomatic efforts in various directions until next crisis leads to its downfall and succeeding Cabinet will be definitely either more moderate or so remilitaristical [as] seems expedient. Japan’s policy has always been to break up China into separate units as most suitable to Japan’s desired hegemony. Japan can carry on as at present for another [Page 563] year. As regards the China affair, Japan’s main interest is to save her honor (face) and economic gains in North China while a great problem is how to liquidate Wang Ching-wei. A continuance of the present American policy of increasing pressure with sufficient free play to encourage the Liberals while avoiding undue provocation of extremists will ultimately bring Japan to a settlement without war with the United States. (End summary.)
It seems to me that Japan is so deeply entrenched in North China that little faith could be placed in any commitments she might make to give up her economic control of this area, particularly if Japanese troops were permitted to remain in China either temporarily or permanently.
Sent to the Department, repeated to Chungking.