894.00/1120: Telegram
The Counselor of Embassy in China (Butrick) to the Secretary of State
[Received October 21—7:17 p.m.]
313. An American press representative here informs me that a Chinese source with good Japanese connections states that the Japanese Navy greatly fears the combined American and British fleets and would be very reluctant to approve a Premier whose policy meant war or serious chances of war with the United States; therefore, the present Premier, while having great power in Japan because concurrently heading Home and War Ministries, will be wary of any situation involving war with the United States, and Japanese press bluster is largely for home and Axis consumption. This source considered American action in recalling American vessels from Japan and China waters and other action indicating that the United States will use force would have a sobering influence on Japanese officialdom which still [Page 541] is not fully convinced that the United States and Great Britain will fight Japan.
I am informed by another source usually reliable that the meeting of veteran Chinese statesmen and military leaders held in Peiping at the end of September on the invitation of the North China Political Affairs Commission was to have been the signal for launching an independent North China but at the last minute General Okamura, Japanese commanding officer in North China, received orders from the Army Chief of Staff, General Sugiyama, to call it off and the meeting degenerated into a social affair. This source does not know the reason for the change.
Sent to the Department, repeated to Chungking and Shanghai.