711.94/1968: Telegram
The Secretary of State to the Ambassador in Japan (Grew)
143. There is repeated for your information a telegram from Moscow dated February 20 reading as follows:
“The monthly magazine Mirovoe Khozyaistvo i Mirovaya Politika in its issue for December 1940 which has just been received publishes an article entitled ‘a new stage in Japanese-American contradictions’ which comments upon Japan’s endeavor to establish hegemony in the Far East and states that stubborn resistance to Japanese aspirations in this area is being encountered primarily from the United States. The article concludes that war between the United States and Japan is inevitable.”
Department offers for your consideration observations on the foregoing Soviet comment as follows:
It is not to be expected that a Soviet organ of opinion would be permitted to express opinions of a character which would serve to expose directly the objectives of the Soviet Government in its policy toward Japan. However, the Soviet comment under reference although confined to a discussion of Japanese-American relations is not without significance as a hint of Soviet hopes, and it can hardly be doubted that in the event the situation envisaged should actually materialize the Soviet Government would seek to take full advantage thereof to strengthen the Soviet position vis-à-vis Japan. It is therefore difficult to see how Japanese statesmen could calculate that any political agreement which Japan might conclude with the Soviet Union at this time would be effective in affording Japan an assurance of substantial security from a menace to her flank should Japan become involved in a conflict with western powers as a result of an advance by Japan southwards.
The Department would appreciate receiving in due course your comments upon the considerations which seem to be influencing the Japanese Government in the development of its policy toward the Soviet Union. It is suggested that it may be useful for you in your discretion to sound out Japanese leaders with whom you come into contact along the lines of the foregoing observations in an endeavor to ascertain whether there is any substantial feeling of confidence on their part in the future stability of Japanese relations with the Soviet Union.