740.0011 P. W./427
Memorandum by Mr. Cecil W. Gray, Assistant to the Secretary of State
In a telephone conversation between Acting Secretary Welles and Secretary Hull at White Sulphur Springs today the following general comment was made by Secretary Hull on the Far Eastern situation:
We have got to keep in mind every day what seems to be the central fact in the situation, so far as the Japs are concerned, and that is that they are at a point right now where they must either go forward [Page 359] more and more toward Thailand and the Burma Road area, no matter how surreptitiously—by evasion, deceit, and all manners of avowals of friendship and peace—as they have done so many times in the past, or they must turn around and come back toward the road of friendship and peace. They swear every day that they are going forward and they are fitting their acts to their words. The only time they modify their policy of overt, unfriendly acts is when they make false and fraudulent avowals of peace and friendship. This they do until they get ready to go forward. While I am not suggesting anything, we should keep what I think is the central point of the situation in mind every day, otherwise we will find ourselves surprised. Nothing will stop them except force. Unless we figure that they are going to turn back we should not figure that they are going to be satisfied to stop where they are. The point is how long we can maneuver the situation until the military matter in Europe is brought to a conclusion.
I think the Japs expected us to go to almost any lengths economically when they took this big stride in Indochina. We could have gone further, in my opinion. You have to keep this in mind—that there is naturally going to continue to be an element of risk and danger in our course, if it is sufficiently firm and extensive to checkmate them. I just don’t want us to take for granted a single word they say but appear to do so, to whatever extent it may satisfy our purpose to delay further action by them. If we can bring about a situation over there responsive to the standpoint we seek and also public opinion at home, it will be fine. Of course, I think they would have stood for cutting oil off entirely as a deserved penalty for going into Indochina. We must realize that the extreme elements that don’t reason much may be poised and ready to take advantage of any attractive slogan to make a break southward.