Office of the Historian

740.0011 P. W./424

Memorandum by Mr. Cecil W. Gray, Assistant to the Secretary of State

[Washington,] July 29, 1941.

In a telephone conversation today Acting Secretary Welles acquainted Mr. Hull at White Sulphur Springs with certain information he had imparted to the Japanese Ambassador yesterday about Japanese ships.65 Secretary Hull made some comment to the effect that this raised a question to which we should give serious consideration. He continued somewhat as follows:

Just as we knew that the Japanese were going to send troops and everything else to Indochina, we do know from the same source of information that they are going on to the next step. If we assume, contrary to what informed outside observers and even specialists say, that they will not do that and instead either do nothing or go norths we will find ourselves surprised in all probability. I think we need to keep a stiff rein and consider making it just as stiff as possible short of actual military activity. They will settle down all over Indochina in effect and then we know they will be moving again, perhaps into Thailand. They will take us by surprise, if we are not careful.

The British and the Dutch raise the question of what we should say to China in the way of further help. These should be conferred with if we say anything about further loans or further aid.

I think we need to give all possible thought to aiding the Philippines and China with whatever we can spare—aircraft, et cetera.

I don’t suppose our people would think it safe to send a squadron down south in a pretty conspicuous area, would they?

We must assume, in the light of the same source of information we first had about the certainty of the occupation of Indochina, that they may go further any time.66 They don’t limit themselves with respect to time in connection with further movements. We must not be taken by surprise. So it is up to our folks to decide on a course of progress.

C[ecil] W. G[ray]
  1. See memorandum by the Acting Secretary of State, July 28, 1941, Foreign Relations, Japan, 1931–1941, vol. ii, p. 537.↩
  2. See telegram No. 888, July 16, 5 p.m., from the Ambassador in France, vol. v, p. 213.↩