Office of the Historian

762.94/402: Telegram

The Chargé in Japan (Dooman) to the Secretary of State

Tokyo, August 8, 1939—6 p.m.
[Received August 8—9:48 a.m.]

394. Our 390, August 5, 10 p.m.

1.
From conversations which I have had during the past few days I believe that the proposal for conclusion by Japan of a military alliance with Germany and Italy is being put forward again with such vigor that a major political crisis is in process of formation. The British Ambassador tells me that he is of the same opinion. Any estimate at this time as to the outcome of the present discussions within the Government would be purely speculative. Some of my Japanese informants believe that the Cabinet will fall while others take a more optimistic view. The best information which I have is that the position of the Cabinet has deteriorated substantially since the end of last week and that the Cabinet is not entirely confident that it will be able to plan its opposition to the treaty proposal.
2.
The basic considerations involved in the present discussion appear to be substantially those set forth in the concluding pages of my despatch 3936 June 7, but the circumstances which have resulted in the bringing forward again accounts of the alliance project at this particular moment are not entirely clear. Certainly the narrowing margin of the differences between the British and French Governments on the one hand and the Soviet Government on the other in the way of concluding a military agreement between those countries has brought about in this country a corresponding increase in support for the organized minority favoring an alliance with Germany and Italy. However, I understand that the view prevails in Japanese military circles that the possibilities of a war in Europe during the present year are decreasing. I am therefore inclined to believe that the principal consideration leading to the bringing forward of this proposal again at this particular juncture should be attributed to the diminishing prospects of the present Anglo-Japanese conversations bringing about an agreement which would be acceptable to the Japanese. Accordingly whether the discussions in the Cabinet are designed primarily as a minatory gesture to emphasize to Great Britain the consequences if the British do not yield to Japanese demands or whether preparations are now being proposed against the state of uncertainty which is anticipated to prevail in the event of the breakdown of the Anglo-Japanese conversations it is impossible to tell. The uncertainty of future relations with the United States is undoubtedly another factor.
Dooman