Office of the Historian

793.94/11461: Telegram

The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State

Tokyo, December 4, 1937—8 p.m.
[Received December 4—4:35 p.m.]

595. Department’s 327, December 3, 4 p.m.

1.
The procedure in Japan with regard to declaration of war is that action is initiated by the Government but the instrument is signed and promulgated by the Emperor only upon the advice of the Privy Council. Probably only a very restricted circle would know of any such decision in the present instance if and when made by the Government but we hope through personal contacts in various quarters to be informed if and when the Privy Council has the matter under consideration.
2.
It is not a Japanese trait to take decisions hastily.
3.
Although Japan is aware that neither the League nor the Nine Power Treaty nations are eager to take coercive measures against Japan, the Japanese Government is reluctant as I have reason to believe to create a further issue with the League without good reason. We believe that unless conditions arise which would materially impede the successful attainment of Japanese objectives in China, such as the continuous flow of arms and munitions to China from abroad in substantially large quantities or the supply of foreign credits to China or some other form of material assistance to China, the Japanese Government will endeavor to avoid placing the League in a position where its member nations would have automatically to apply economic sanctions or overtly proclaim its impotence.
4.
My British colleague has reported to his Government that the decision as to a declaration of war will depend on the amount of arms and munitions brought into China and he tells me that the flow of such arms and munitions from Hong Kong is steadily increasing. [Page 759] We have agreed promptly to exchange such information as may come to us.
5.
Another informant in close touch with Japanese naval officers considers a declaration of war “almost inevitable” and states that those officials who wish to avoid trouble with Great Britain are “fast losing ground.” While the navy, in the event of a declaration of war, fully intends to exercise the procedure of visit and search of all vessels entering Hong Kong, naval officers are convinced that England is in no position to do anything about it. The foregoing obviously represents certain naval views.
6.
We have had this matter under close observation from the very beginning (see our 509, November 2, 2 p.m.). Since that time rumors have been current that the Japanese Government has reached an affirmative decision on this matter to be effective as of various dates. The report mentioned in the Department’s 315, November 24, 6 p.m., is a case in point. These dates have come and gone without a declaration of war. We are continuing to watch for developments and we shall not fail to inform the Department as soon as any significant indication is observed.
Grew