893.00/5269: Telegram
The Minister in China (Schurman) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 10—4:42 p.m.]
365. Following is summary of the political situation:
President Tsao Kun is carrying out a policy of conciliating leaders of rival factions and the likelihood of a coalition against the Chihli Party is visibly decreasing. The Anfu Party controls no force except that of Lu Yung-hsiang in Chekiang Province. Tuan Chi-yi, who is a possible leader of the Anfu Party, has been given the offer of a pension as a reward for past services. He has declined to receive it but has made favorable comment about the President, referring to him as an honest man who is a worthy colleague of the Pei-yang Party.
Negotiations are taking place with Chang Tso-lin. According to reliable information the restoration of his titles and honors has been offered and also the return of the war munitions left in Chihli by his army at the time of the fighting in 1922. So far Chang has not been able to secure a promise that he will be reinstated in control of the Provinces of Suiyuan, Chahar and Jehol, which would place him in control of the Kupeikou Pass, 60 miles from Peking, and practically in control of the district of Sandakan [Shanhaikwan?]. No one expects, however, that Chang Tso-lin will come inside the Great Wall for the present or even next spring unless the attack is joined by the anti-Chihli factions. Even should the Anfu Party wish to cooperate with Chang Tso-lin, Chi Hsieh-yuan at Nanking would paralyze the first movement of Lu Yung-hsiang’s forces.
As for the Kuomintang Party, Sun Yat-sen’s fortunes are near their lowest ebb again. It is reported that while the Sun faction is still in control of Canton they are very nervous and have proclaimed martial law. This information is contained in a telegram dated November 9, which I have received from the consul general at Canton in answer to my inquiries, and also in a telegram of the same date, which the inspector general of customs has received from the commissioner of customs at Canton. There are increasing indications that Sun Yat-sen is preparing to flee. This is especially indicated by the transportation of Sun followers and their belongings to Hongkong. General Chen Chiung-ming, who is now advancing against Canton along the Canton-Kowloon Railway, got as far as Sheklung, 40 miles from Canton. However, he was compelled to retreat because of lack of support. It is expected that he will soon return to Canton.
[Page 524]A strong popular demand that civil strife cease is reenforcing military conditions and the conciliation policy of Tsao Kun. All the people, both Chinese and foreign, want peace, especially the commercial classes. They are for that reason inclined to give the new President a fair trial. In spite of the general and loud criticism of the Tientsin faction of the Chihli Party, the people prefer bad government to continued fighting in the vague hope of better government.
Expenses have not been reduced, troops have not been disbanded, and there is no relief to the financial situation. A commission under Yen is investigating the facts regarding the debts, but I had a talk with Yen a few days ago, and he seemed pessimistic as to a solution of the difficulty. I was informed by Padoux28 that they had gone far enough to find out that the revenue from the anticipated customs surtax would not be sufficient to fund the debts and leave a margin for the Chinese Government. He made the suggestion that tobacco be heavily taxed as is done in other countries.
As yet no Premier has been appointed. Yen was the choice of the military men while Speaker Wu Ching-lien … was demanded by the Tientsin faction. President Tsao Kun has nominated as a compromise candidate Sun Pao-chi. Sun is a brother-in-law of Yen and is the Chinese chief of the customs service. He is thoroughly a gentleman, but I think he may be too mild and timid to achieve success. Under the influence of the Speaker, Parliament has failed to ratify the nomination as yet, but they can hardly continue in opposition to the first nomination made by the President whom they have just elected and the prestige of Speaker Wu seems to be on the decline.
In the meantime the business of government is at a standstill. If there was anything lacking to more completely paralyze it, the lack was supplied by the gold franc issue which was voted by Parliament against the claims of France and other countries concerned. … My French colleague was going home on leave, but he has received instructions from Poincaré29 to remain at his post until a settlement of this matter is reached.