No. 421.
Mr. Sickles to Mr. Fish.
Madrid, June 8, 1872. (Received June 25.)
Sir: My arrival in Madrid was coincident with the fall of the Sagasta cabinet. The late president of the council was allowed to go through the form of a resignation, but in reality he surrendered his office to the peremptory demands of offended public opinion, expressed in the journals, [Page 554] in the congress, and in social circles. The immediate cause of his resignation was the discovery of the abstraction of a considerable sum of public money, held in trust by the government for the families of troops serving in Cuba. This money is believed to have been used to carry the elections for the present congress, and to support a secret police which seems to have practiced a scandalous espionage upon many prominent personages, including ladies of the highest rank, and even the King himself. The impeachment of the ex-minister is loudly demanded, but it might form an inconvenient precedent, and will not be conceded.
Marshal Serrano was chaged with the formation of a cabinet, a duty not easily performed, as he was at the moment in the Pyrenees at the head of the forces operating against the Garlists. The duties of president of the council were temporarily assumed by Admiral Topete, the secretary of the navy, in the new ministry. It was expected this arrangement would last until the conclusion of the campaign permitted the general-in-chief to assume in person his place at the head of affairs. An unforeseen phase in the situation was suddenly caused by an order issued by the marshal, granting extremely liberal terms to the Garlists in Navarre, in which it was stipulated that they should immediately cease hostilities and give up their arms.
This act of clemency on the part of the general commanding, assumed to be the result of an understanding with the Carlist chiefs in the Basque provinces, was at once characterized and denounced as the “convention of Amore-Vieta,” and so violent and universal were the expressions of disapproval it encountered, that even the president of the council ad interim, Admiral Topete, yielded to the pressure so far as to admit, in his place in the chamber of deputies, that public opinion had found just occasion for alarm in the reported terms of the transaction. This declaration was immediately followed by the resignation of Marshal Serrano, not only of his military command, but also of the presidency of the council of ministers.
The return of the marshal to the capital at once restored his prestige. His late colleagues heard his explanations and assured him of their support. The chamber of deputies received his brief statement, made in his place as a member of the popular branch of congress, with an emphatic vote of approbation. Thereupon the marshal yielded to the wishes of his colleagues and of the King, and resumed the portfolio of war, with the presidency of the council.
The new cabinet takes office in the presence of the most critical situation yet confronted by the present dynasty. The King has unfortunately alienated the friendship of the party that placed him on the throne. The various elements of the opposition, re-enforced by this defection of the radicals under Zorilla, become bolder in their demands everyday. The Carlists are still in the field in great numbers. It is true that several bands availed themselves of the generous terms of surrender granted by Marshal Serrano at Amorevieta, but the rising is by no means paciflcated even in the Pyrenees, and it is said to be taking serious proportions in Catalonia. The republicans are kept tranquil by the firm attitude of their leaders, who are understood, however, only to await a more favorable moment for a hostile demonstration. The radical chief, Mr. Zorrilla, has retired from the chamber of deputies and renounced the parliamentary leadership of the progressista democrats, to which he succeeded on the death of General Prim. Several explanations are given of this incident, none of which are plausible to an observer of Spanish politics. It is doubtless one of those forms of abnegation [Page 555] which are so often the precursor of hostilities in this country, and this impression is confirmed by a recent call, emanating from the prominent men of the same party, Martos, Cordova, Becerra, and others, for a convention, to be composed of representatives of all the provinces in Spain, to consider and determine on the line of conduct to be pursued.
The indications at this moment incline me to the opinion that the present dynasty has seen its best days. It will be probably succeeded before long by a provisional government, in which the republicans, largely re-enforced from the ranks of the radicals, will contend with the partisans of the young Prince Alfonso for supremacy. If Marshal Serrano should be reconciled to the old dynasty by the offer of the regency during the minority of Alfonso, or if he were satisfied with the concession of the regency to his friend the Duke of Montpensier, the uncle of the prince, such an arrangement might hold out a fair promise of success) nevertheless it cannot be doubted that the republicans have much to justify their anticipated triumph. The failure of the monarchical parties to satisfy the exigencies of the country, or even the requirements of a successful party organization; the prevailing belief in the necessity of reforms, which can only be effected by a revolution more thorough than that of 1868; the apparent incompatibility between the democratic constitution adopted in 1869, representing the advanced ideas of this epoch, and the monarchy ingrafted on it as a concession to Spanish traditions; the profound disappointment of the liberal party in the results of their effort to reconcile the throne with a government essentially popular and free outside of the executive department; the inability of the country to maintain the enormous expenditure entailed upon it by the monarchical establishment, and its accessories in the army, church, and civil list; and last, not least, the stability of the popular situation represented in France by M. Thiers—these, and other considerations I neyed not mention, support the views of those who predict that the successor of Amadeus may be a President chosen by the Spanish people.
The suffrages of the people of this country are divided mainly between the Carlists, the radicals, and the republicans. The first is the party of tradition and reaction. In the rural portions of Spain it is especially strong, and it counts on the support of the larger part of the clergy. The towns are nearly all radical or republican. Outside of the army and navy, and a circle of clever politicians supported by a goodly number of persons in office or on the pension-list, there is no considerable popular strength belonging to the conservative party led by Marshal Serrano. The late dynasty has few advocates outside of a fraction of the aristocracy, which has little influence in Spanish politics. It is said, however, that several battalions of the army have been gained over to the cause of the Prince Alfonso by means often found effectual in the Spanish military service.
If we pass beyond the frontier, it is easy to see that France takes little pains to conceal the indifference with which she regards the fortunes of the present dynasty. The alliance understood to exist between the King of Italy and the German Emperor is a sufficient explanation of this coolness, without assuming that France desires a republican neighbor. Apart from the German sympathies of the reigning house, it is perhaps more in accord with England than any of the other powers, as you must have observed from the hesitation of the British cabinet to second our earnest appeals to Spain for the abolition of slavery and for a more humane colonial policy.
I am, &c.,