No. 190.
Mr. Schuyler to Mr. Fish.
Sir: Great exertions are being made here to induce the government to abandon its neutrality and to declare itself on one side or the other. It seems to be the general opinion that if the country were prepared for war it would declare it, and try to draw from it certain political advantages, such as a revision of the treaty of Paris, and territorial extensions on the Black or Baltic Seas. The feeling in favor of France is perhaps stronger since the recent successes of Prussia, and the leading journals have every day articles showing how unfortunate for Europe and for free government would be the increase and consolidation of a great military power like North Germany. Only one paper, the Novoe Vremya, (New Time,) the organ of the old conservative party, with a very limited circulation, demands that Russia take up arms, and that to assist the French. The Legal Messenger regards it as certain that Russia will eventually fight, but on the Prussian side. This seems to be the fear of everybody, judging from the numerous articles which condemn such a course. The officers of the army are said to be nearly unanimous in favor of France and of a war with Prussia, and I know of several occasions when toasts have been drunk to the ruin of the Germans and of “Fritz.”
It is difficult to see how Russia would gain any advantage by taking part in a war of this kind, even if Austria were engaged. Meanwhile the government is using every effort to prepare for eventualities. It is impossible not to notice that the vicinities of all the barracks show a great stir. Hospital wagons and camp equipage are being repaired and [Page 234] put in order. The cartridge factories are running constantly day and night, turning out about 500,000 metallic shells daily. These are now being filled and sent to the frontier in large quantities. An additional order for 100 Gatling guns has been sent to America in the last few days, making 210 in all.
Fears are being expressed lest Russia should lose even the advantages of neutrality, and lest England should succeed in getting the upper hand in diplomacy and negotiation.
The Moscow Gazette, while confident that Russia will occupy a position worthy of herself after this crisis is over, says that neutrality must not be inaction, but a preparation for events, and covertly accuses England of trying to overreach and get the better of Russia in the recent negotiations about Belgium.
The late successes of the German army have directed attention to the vulnerable points of Russia in case of the complete victory of Prussia. There are two, Poland and the Baltic provinces.
Polish intrigues are more active than ever, but the Polish question, if raised at all, will be raised by Austria, which is thought here to be falling completely into Polish hands, and not by Prussia, who has a somewhat unquiet Polish population of her own.
Circulars have been lately sent from abroad to the Catholic priests in Poland and the northwestern provinces, recommending preparation, and urging them to extend, by all means, their influence among the people. In fact, the northwestern provinces seem to disquiet Russia more than Poland proper. In them the government counted on the orthodox clergy, the peasantry, and the few Russian proprietors; but the liberals hold that the administration of General Potapof has, by deferring too much to the Catholic priesthood, lowered the status and influence of the orthodox clergy, and has, by not rightly carrying out the orders of emancipation, alienated the peasantry, 100,000 of whom were Russian dissenters, animated by the most patriotic feelings for the country, and were a valuable support.
At the same time the proprietors are no nearer being conciliated. It is, therefore, considered by many that the situation is dangerous, and should Russia form any alliance this point will be carefully safeguarded.
In the Baltic provinces all the political power is possessed by some 200,000 German nobles and merchants, who still keep the privileges granted them by Peter the Great, on the conquest of the country, to the exclusion of the 2,000,000 of natives and Russians who do not speak German. Any attempt of the imperial government to introduce the Russian language, instead of the German, as the official language, or to make liberal reforms in the judicial proceedings or in the city government, is vigorously resisted by the Germans, who immediately cry out that they are oppressed and persecuted. Their leaders have more than once pointed to Prussia as their natural defender and protector, and there is a party in Prussia which has espoused their cause, and threatens difficulties with the Russian government. These questions, indeed, in the North German Reichstag, have always been evaded and opposed by the Prussian government; but people here think that, should Prussia be successful and Germany become united, a strong effort will be made to make the Baltic question an international one, to claim the Baltic provinces as part of Germany, and to detach them from Russia. Dislike to, and suspicion of, these Baltic Germans is one cause of the feeling against Prussia.