793.00/10–154: Telegram
No. 311
The Secretary of
State to the Department of
State
priority
Dulte 15. Eyes only Acting Secretary from Secretary. Re Tedul 12.1 With reference to timing, a good deal depends upon military estimate. Basic purpose is to have matter before Security Council prior to situation arising which would pose the dilemma of loss of island or US intervention. Another factor is that if the fighting becomes acute and nothing is done, it will seem strange to bring matter before Security Council some weeks subsequently.
Perhaps best solution would be to have everything in readiness and then to file either in November or when serious attack mounting, whichever comes first.
While there may be an unfavorable reaction in some quarters and possibly from Chi Nats, they should appreciate that it is an odds-on chance that they will come out on top as a result of this move. It seems to me highly unlikely that Chi Coms will accept UN jurisdiction while they are deprived of membership; also that they would accept UN jurisdiction with reference to territory such as these offshore islands which have always been part of China. Chi Nats should also realize that this gives them their only chance to hold these islands as against all-out Chi Com attack in which US does not intervene and that the loss of islands under these circumstances would be a serious blow to them. While I admit move is a bold one in sense that it does involve some risks, I believe that it is clearly defensible by all who accept it that US will not engage in large-scale and perhaps atomic war against Chi Com mainland to hold these islands.
Please cable soonest your reactions about timing in light of foregoing.2 I believe US Emb Taipei should be confidentially informed of our thinking and its judgment sought as to communicating to Chi Nats.
I have impression that sometime before actual moves are taken UK will want to explain its position to Chi Coms.
Agree that preliminaries should be worked out in Washington rather than New York and will confirm with Eden.