Office of the Historian

211. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski) to President Carter1

Washington, December 17, 1980

SUBJECT

  • Daily Report

Information

Gloomy Assessment of India: One of the State Department’s most seasoned observers of India returned from a visit there with a discouraging interpretation of the political situation and prospective future developments.2 According to his report, India appears to be drifting without any sense of direction, unable so far to come to grips with its serious economic, social, and political problems. The prospect seems to be for continuing drift, punctuated by sudden and not carefully conceived measures to deal with increasingly difficult problems. Mrs. Gandhi may turn to more authoritarian measures, with questionable effect. The erosion of the bureaucracy, the police, the political parties, and parliament, strengthens the conclusion that continuing non-performance is likely. There is no likely threat to Mrs. Gandhi’s authority over the next 2–3 years, but it is a sign of the political disarray that nobody has any idea who would succeed her if she died suddenly. (C)

In light of this situation, the U.S. must be prepared to deal with further manifestations of Mrs. Gandhi’s long-held suspicions of our policies and motives. Trouble at home may prompt an even tougher line towards the neighbors, especially Pakistan. There could be sudden fits and starts, and efforts to demonstrate purposeful activity, but in the main we should not expect genuine new departures in Indian foreign policy. (C)

[Omitted here is material unrelated to India.]

  1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, President’s Daily CIA Brief File, Box 33, 12/13/80–12/17/80. Secret; Sensitive. Printed from an uninitialed copy. Carter initialed at the top of the memorandum.↩
  2. Reference is to Schaffer, who visited India for 10 days in mid-November. Thornton sent Schaffer’s report to Brzezinski under a December 12 covering memorandum. (Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, North/South, Thornton Country File, Box 92, India: 7–12/80)↩